AI能推翻经济学理论吗？实验显示还需人类主导。
Can AI Refute Economic Theory? Evidence from Beyond the Knowledge Cutoff
- 用多个AI模型检测经济论文中的错误，验证其纠错能力
- ChatGPT Pro表现最佳，能构造反例并修正证明
- 当前AI仍需人类引导才能发现真实错误
本文通过实验检验人工智能（AI）能否反驳经济学理论。我让 Gemini、Refine、Claude 和 ChatGPT 等多个AI模型核查四篇已发表的经济学理论论文中的错误，这些错误由我协助发现或修正。结果显示，ChatGPT Pro 表现最佳，偶尔可构建反例并给出正确证明；其他模型表现较差。然而，所有模型均无法在无显著人类指导的情况下独立发现真实错误，且数据污染问题影响结论解读。我认为，具备能力的人类与前沿AI结合，可优于当前同行评审，但目前的AI尚不能独立推翻经济学理论。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Can artificial intelligence (AI) refute economic theory? I document experiments in which I asked several AI models (Gemini, Refine, Claude, and ChatGPT) to check the correctness of four published papers in economic theory, each containing an error that I helped identify or correct. ChatGPT Pro performed best, occasionally constructing counterexamples and corrected proofs, while other models fared worse. However, no model located a true error without substantial human guidance, and data contamination complicates interpretation. I argue that a competent human paired with a frontier model can outperform current peer review, but AI cannot yet refute economic theory on its own.
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