用表格大模型高效解决工业设备健康预测难题
Towards Unified and Data-Efficient Prognostics and Health Management with Tabular Foundation Models

- 将时序数据转为表格格式,通过上下文学习实现跨任务预测
- 在少样本条件下表现优于传统模型,诊断与寿命预测均达领先水平
- 适合数据稀疏、格式多样的工业场景,尤其适合资源有限的工程应用
基于数据的故障预测与健康管理(PHM)利用随时间变化的状态监测数据,对工程资产进行状态诊断并估计剩余使用寿命,对维护规划至关重要。然而工业PHM数据常呈现碎片化、部分观测和标签质量差的问题,限制了监督学习的应用。基础模型为可复用的预测系统提供了新路径,但多数时间序列基础模型专注于预测,且依赖长而连续的规则采样序列。为此,本文提出一种将表格基础模型应用于工业时序数据的框架,采用上下文学习方法,并在多种PHM任务上进行评估。通过将原始单元级信号转换为表格行,实验表明这些模型在诊断与寿命预测等多项任务中表现优异,且具备高度的数据效率。在统一评估协议下,与序列模型、Transformer基线及梯度提升树相比,表格基础模型在预测与诊断任务上的平均排名最优。研究进一步显示,基于PFN的模型在低数据场景下具有竞争力,时间上下文可在表格表示中有效保留,性能取决于子采样下的上下文构建代表性。结果表明,表格基础模型为异构的PHM问题提供了一种实用且通用的接口。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Data-driven Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) uses time-varying condition-monitoring data to diagnose system states and estimate remaining useful life in engineered assets. These tasks are central to maintenance planning, but industrial PHM data are often fragmented, partially observed, and poorly labeled, which hinders supervised learning. Foundation models offer a route toward reusable predictive systems, yet most time-series foundation models are designed for forecasting and assume long, coherent, regularly sampled sequences. To address this gap, we propose a framework for applying Tabular Foundation Models to industrial time series using in-context learning, and we evaluate them on a variety of PHM tasks. By converting raw unit-level signals into tabular rows, we show that these models perform well across multiple tasks - including prognostics, and diagnostics - and are highly data efficient. We compare them directly with sequence models, transformer baselines, and gradient-boosted trees under a common evaluation protocol. The results indicate that tabular foundation models achieve the best average ranks across prognostic and diagnostic tasks. Our findings further show that PFN-based models are competitive in low-data regimes, that temporal context can be preserved in the tabular representation, and that performance depends on representative context construction under subsampling. These results demonstrate that tabular foundation models provide a practical and general interface for heterogeneous PHM problems.
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