用扩散模型生成更优决策场景,兼顾统计真实与优化效果
Diff2SP: Diffusion Models for Correlated Scenario Generation in Stochastic Programming

- 将优化目标融入扩散模型训练,生成兼具真实性和决策价值的场景
- 理论证明生成场景的分布精度与决策表现正相关,收敛速度优于GAN
- 适合需高质量随机场景的能源规划、金融建模等不确定性决策任务
随机规划中的情景生成是影响不确定性下决策质量的关键环节。现有方法多依赖采样或监督学习,前者难以捕捉复杂依赖和罕见但合理事件,后者受限于固定输入输出对,生成场景受预设模式约束。为此,本文提出Diff2SP,一种将下游优化目标直接嵌入情景生成过程的扩散生成框架。与传统分步生成不同,Diff2SP在训练中融合随机优化,生成既统计一致又决策敏感的情景。理论上,我们建立了关联分布准确度与决策质量的后悔界,并给出样本复杂度保证,显示其收敛速度优于传统生成模型如GAN。在合成数据及电力系统数据集上的实验验证了理论分析,表明Diff2SP在统计保真度和下游优化性能上均持续提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Scenario generation is a critical component in stochastic programming (SP), as it directly influences the quality of decision-making under uncertainty. Existing approaches predominantly rely on either sampling-based techniques or supervised learning using neural networks. Sampling-based techniques often struggle to capture complex dependencies and rare but plausible events, while supervised learning requires fixed input-output pairs for training and is limited in its ability to generate a wide variety of realistic scenarios that are not restricted by predefined patterns or rules. To address these limitations, we introduce Diff2SP, a diffusion-based generative framework that incorporates downstream optimization objectives directly into scenario generation. Unlike conventional methods that treat scenario generation and decision-making as separate steps, Diff2SP embeds stochastic optimization into the training process, enabling the generation of scenarios that are both statistically coherent and decision-aware. To formally justify this optimization-aware design, we establish a regret bounds that link distributional accuracy to decision quality, and establish sample complexity guarantees showing faster convergence than traditional generative models such as GANs. Empirical results on both synthetic and power-system datasets validate these theoretical insights, demonstrating that Diff2SP consistently improves both statistical fidelity and downstream optimization outcomes.
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