用实时新闻构建动态公司关联图,提升股市预测精度。
Zero-Copy Semantic Contagion: An In-Memory Streaming Architecture for Evolving Attention Graphs

- 基于新闻流构建连续时间注意力图,实现跨公司传播建模。
- 每条新闻处理延迟仅13毫秒,精度比随机预测高1.7倍。
- 适合量化交易、金融风控等需要实时信号的场景。
个股预测模型通常忽略公司间的传播效应:台湾晶圆厂中断事件在单资产模型中直到苹果股价变动后才被感知。为此,我们提出一种异构的Rust-Python流式架构,直接从文本生成跨公司注意力图。在数据摄入端,零拷贝的Rust边解析新闻记录耗时约100纳秒,扫描目标股票池耗时约1.2微秒。在推理端,采用多变量神经霍克斯过程,每个节点使用连续时间LSTM状态,并通过双线性潜在投影传播定向激励;自适应剪枝规则控制动态邻域更新的计算开销。整体系统在单颗通用CPU上实现每条新闻约13毫秒的端到端处理延迟。在包含638篇文章、47只股票的FNSPID语料库一个月时间留出集上评估,该系统在90%分位次日收益率阈值下,相比随机预测精度提升1.70倍,相比同行业基准提升3.36倍。关键的是,移除图结构后精度降为零,证实动态注意力网络是本架构中跨公司信号的唯一来源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Per-ticker forecasting models dominate financial time-series work yet remain blind to cross-company propagation: a foundry disruption in Taiwan does not register in a single-asset model until Apple's own price has already moved. To address this limitation, we introduce a heterogeneous Rust-Python streaming architecture that maps cross-company attention as a continuous-time graph driven directly from text. We show that on the ingestion side, a zero-copy Rust edge parses news records in $\sim$100 ns and scans the target equity universe in $\sim$1.2 $μ$s. On the inference end, a multivariate Neural Hawkes Process featuring per-node continuous-time LSTM states and a bilinear latent projection propagates directed excitation, while an adaptive pruning rule bounds the computational cost of dynamic neighborhood updates. Combining these stages, we demonstrate an end-to-end processing latency of $\sim$13 ms per incoming news record on a single commodity CPU. Evaluated on a one-month temporal holdout of the FNSPID corpus (638 articles across 47 tickers), the system delivers a $1.70\times$ precision lift over random at the 90th-percentile next-day return threshold, and $3.36\times$ over a same-sector baseline. Crucially, removing the graph topology collapses precision to zero, confirming that the dynamic attention network is the sole driver of cross-company signal in this architecture.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。