arXiv:2606.05797cs.LGstat.ML2026-06

用合成数据预训练模型,零样本预测治疗后的潜在结果。

Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks for Counterfactual Outcome Prediction

  • 在合成数据上预训练,学习时间因果结构和个体差异
  • 测试时无需更新参数,仅靠输入轨迹即预测未来结果
  • 适合缺乏数据的医疗场景,替代重复建模

纵向治疗决策需在存在时变混杂、患者异质性和数据有限的情况下,预测未来治疗序列下的潜在结果。现有方法通常为每个队列或模拟器重新训练模型。本文提出因果纵向先验适配网络(CausalLongPFN),一种基于广泛时间因果模型先验生成的合成数据进行预训练的时序因果推断模型,支持零样本上下文内反事实结果预测。模型在训练中接触了治疗-混杂反馈、潜藏异质性、非线性状态演化、延迟效应与累积治疗响应。测试时模型冻结,仅通过支持轨迹、查询历史和规划的未来治疗序列,输出未来结果的预测分布,无需梯度更新或倾向性模型拟合。多步预测通过递归应用单步预测实现。在癌症、艾滋病和华法林分支基准上验证,具备真实反事实标签;并在MIMIC-III ICU数据上进行仅事实的滚动起源预测。结果表明,该模型在反事实预测上可媲美领域训练基线,在事实预测上表现优异,说明广义合成因果预训练可提供一种无需微调的、可复用的零样本纵向治疗反应预测方案,尤其适用于重复领域训练成本高或不可行的场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Longitudinal treatment decisions from multivariate time-series data require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically address this problem by training a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted network for time-series causal inference in longitudinal treatment-response data and zero-shot in-context counterfactual outcome prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN remains frozen and is used zero-shot: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a planned future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate the model on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a frozen, amortized alternative for zero-shot longitudinal treatment-response prediction when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

因果推断时序建模零样本医疗预测

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