提出可自适应生成时间序列的扩散模型,避免未来信息泄露。
Diffusion Models for Adaptive Sequential Data Generation

- 沿时序正向加噪、反向去噪,基于历史生成保证自适应性。
- 在ARMA与高斯过程上生成效果优于传统方法,可优化投资组合均值-方差。
- 理论严谨,用ReLU网络实现分数匹配,适合金融、医疗等时序建模场景。
在运筹学、金融、医疗、能源系统及科学计算等领域,生成真实感强的合成时序数据对预测、仿真、风险评估和数据驱动决策至关重要。尽管扩散模型在静态数据生成中表现优异,但其直接扩展至时序场景往往无法捕捉时间依赖性和信息结构。设计能自适应生成时序数据、不依赖未来信息的扩散模型仍是未解难题。本文提出一种面向自适应时序生成的前向-后向扩散框架,通过沿序列逐步注入并去除噪声,基于已生成历史进行条件建模以确保自适应性。引入新颖的分数匹配目标,实现高效并行训练。在通用框架下给出严格的统计保证,进一步建立分数逼近、分数估计与分布估计结果,以使用ReLU网络为例。实验验证该方法在合成数据(包括ARMA模型和高斯过程)上的有效性,并成功用于构建均值-方差最优投资组合。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Generating realistic synthetic sequential data is critical in real-world applications across operations research, finance, healthcare, energy systems, and scientific computing, where time-indexed observations are used for prediction, simulation, risk assessment, and data-driven decision-making. While diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating static data, their direct extensions to sequential settings often fail to capture temporal dependence and information structure. Designing diffusion models that can simulate sequential data in an adapted manner, and hence without anticipation of future information, therefore remains an open challenge. In this work, we propose a sequential forward-backward diffusion framework for adapted time series generation. Our approach progressively injects and removes noise along the sequence, conditioning on the previously generated history to ensure adaptiveness. A novel score-matching objective is introduced for efficient parallel training. We derive rigorous statistical guarantees under a generic framework, then establish score approximation, score estimation, and distribution estimation results with ReLU networks serving as a concrete instance. Empirically, we validate our method on synthetic data, including ARMA models and Gaussian processes, and demonstrate its effectiveness in constructing mean-variance optimal portfolios.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。