arXiv:2606.06010cs.LGcs.DB2026-06

提出自适应对齐方法,让模型更灵活捕捉真实时间序列的非刚性周期变化。

Adaptive Oscillatory-State Alignment for Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:Adaptive Oscillatory-State Alignment for Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用希尔伯特变换提取信号特征,动态对齐局部周期状态
  • 在8个公开数据集上精度领先,模型小且推理快
  • 适合需要长期预测的场景,如云资源调度和容量规划

长期时间序列预测依赖于揭示重复时间结构的归纳偏置。现有周期预测方法通常通过预设周期、全局谱成分或固定可学习模板建模重复性。然而,现实时间动态很少严格周期:围绕名义周期,振荡行为常呈现非刚性周期性(NRP),即周期幅度、周期对齐和局部周期长度随时间变化。在此条件下,固定模板建模会与底层时间状态根本不匹配。本文提出AOSNet,一种基于希尔伯特引导的预测框架,将周期预测从固定模板匹配重构为自适应振荡态对齐。AOSNet从观测序列和可学习全局振荡先验中提取解析信号描述符,通过描述符条件门控自适应对齐局部状态,选择性保留可靠观测并软性修正错位区域。所学先验不作为刚性重复模板,而是通过局部状态动态解释的灵活振荡参考。在八个公共基准和两个云工作负载轨迹上的实验表明,该方法在精度上领先或高度竞争,模型紧凑且推理延迟低,适用于容量规划、自动伸缩等重复预测场景。受控合成实验分离周期幅度与对齐变化,并结合周期时长变化,结果显示随着NRP加剧,振荡态对齐的优势愈发明显。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Long-term time series forecasting benefits from inductive biases that expose recurring temporal structure. Existing periodic forecasting methods typically model recurrence through predefined periods, global spectral components, or fixed learnable templates. However, real-world temporal dynamics are rarely rigidly periodic: around a nominal cycle, oscillatory behavior often exhibits \emph{non-rigid periodicity} (NRP), where cycle magnitude, cycle alignment, and local cycle duration vary over time. Under these conditions, fixed-template periodic modeling can become fundamentally mismatched to the underlying temporal states. We propose AOSNet, a Hilbert-guided forecasting framework that reformulates periodic forecasting from fixed template matching to adaptive oscillatory-state alignment. AOSNet extracts analytic-signal descriptors from both the observed sequence and a learnable global oscillatory prior, then adaptively aligns local states through a descriptor-conditioned gate that selectively preserves reliable observations while softly correcting mismatched regions. The learned prior serves not as a rigid repeated template but as a flexible oscillatory reference interpreted through local state dynamics. Experiments on eight public benchmarks and two cloud workload traces demonstrate leading or highly competitive accuracy with a compact model size and low inference latency, supporting repeated forecasting settings such as capacity planning and autoscaling. Controlled synthetic studies that isolate cycle-magnitude and cycle-alignment variation and combine them with cycle-duration changes show that the advantage of oscillatory-state alignment increases as NRP intensifies.

时间序列周期预测自适应对齐云调度

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