在少量标注数据下,为燃气轮机群提供可信度评估的排放预测方法。
Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data

- 融合多头循环模型与置信度估计,生成可解释的置信分数。
- 高置信度样本误差降低至0.070,较全量覆盖提升显著。
- 适合工业级部署,帮助识别需谨慎对待的预测结果。
基于机器学习的预测性排放监测系统为直接测量提供了实用替代方案,但在仅少数设备具备排放标签的情况下,其在燃气轮机群中的部署面临挑战。本文提出一种信任感知的概率框架,用于在有限标注监督下进行燃气轮机群的NOx预测。该框架结合多头递归预测模型、学习到的置信度估计、集成不确定性量化、辅助特征预测、特征空间距离分析及运行范围诊断,利用标注数据校准每条样本的信任分数,提供未标注机组预测可靠性的指示,支持在群组部署中识别需格外谨慎的预测结果。基于置信度的过滤使平均绝对误差从全覆盖率下的0.202降至最高置信度10%样本的0.070,表明置信度与预测误差存在有意义关联。未标注及分布外样本表现出更高不确定性和更低置信度,说明框架对分布偏移有合理响应。结果表明,所提信任框架为未标注机组的排放预测提供了可操作的可靠性信息,有助于实现工业群组中预测性排放监测系统的更透明、可信部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning-based predictive emissions monitoring systems offer a practical alternative to direct emissions measurement, but their deployment across gas turbine fleets is challenging when emissions labels are available for only a small subset of assets. In this work, a trust-aware probabilistic framework is proposed for fleet-level gas turbine NOx prediction under limited labelled supervision. The framework combines a multi-head recurrent prediction model with learned confidence estimation, ensemble-based uncertainty quantification, auxiliary feature prediction, feature-space distance analysis, and operating-range diagnostics. These signals are calibrated on labelled data to produce interpretable per-sample trust scores, providing indicators of prediction reliability on unlabelled turbines, supporting the identification of predictions that should be treated with greater caution during fleet-level deployment. Confidence-based filtering reduces MAE from 0.202 at full coverage to 0.070 for the highest-confidence 10\% of predictions, demonstrating that confidence estimates are meaningfully related to prediction error. Unlabelled and out-of-distribution samples exhibit increased uncertainty and reduced confidence, indicating that the framework responds appropriately to distributional shift. The results show that the proposed trust framework provides actionable reliability information for emissions prediction on unlabelled turbines, supporting more transparent and trustworthy deployment of PEMS across industrial fleets.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。