arXiv:2606.06316quant-phcs.AI2026-06被引 3

量子算法无需预先知道罕见事件,即可高效发现并采样极低概率事件。

Quantum enhanced rare event discovery and sampling

  • 基于量子叠加与振幅放大,直接探测未知的稀有事件
  • 在重尾系统中实现二次加速,在平稳随机过程中获得多项式加速
  • 适合金融风险、基础设施故障等极端事件建模与预测

金融危机、基础设施级联失效以及人工智能系统中的关键错误,常由极低概率事件触发。高效发现并采样概率低于阈值的事件至关重要,但现有经典与量子方法均面临挑战。由于事件稀少,传统方法需巨大采样开销;又因事件未知,无法预先标记以增强。本文提出一种无需先验识别罕见事件的量子算法,达到最优量子复杂度标度。该方法在尾部具有非零总质量的重尾系统中实现二次加速,并在平稳随机过程中转化为依赖熵率结构的稳健多项式加速。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial crashes, cascading failures in infrastructure, and critical errors in AI systems are frequently triggered by events that occur with extremely small probability. Efficiently discovering and sampling events with probability below a threshold is therefore of critical interest. Yet this task is highly non-trivial using existing classical or quantum methods. Being rare, such events require an immense sampling overhead to collect sufficient data samples. Moreover, because the rare events are not known in advance, they cannot be flagged for amplification using standard techniques. Here, we introduce a quantum algorithm for rare-event discovery and sampling without first learning which events are rare. The algorithm achieves the optimal quantum scaling with the rarity threshold. We further demonstrate that this can achieve a quadratic speedup for heavy-tailed systems whose tail has nonvanishing total mass, and translates into a robust polynomial speedup for stationary stochastic processes, with the exponent determined by its entropy-rate structure.

量子算法罕见事件概率采样金融风险

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