用时空样本注意力提升时间序列预测,显式利用历史配对数据。
Trio: Learning Time-Series Forecasting with Temporal-Spatial-Sample Attention and Structural Causal Priors

- 引入时序-空间-样本三重注意力,分别捕捉动态、变量关联和历史配对。
- 在合成与真实数据上均提升预测精度,零样本测试显示结构先验有效。
- 适合需要可解释性与历史经验复用的工业级时间序列场景。
多变量时间序列预测需同时建模时序动态、变量间依赖及历史输入输出对应关系。现有基于先验-数据拟合网络(PFN)的方法虽能学习可迁移推理行为,但直接应用于时间序列仍困难,因时序顺序、动态滞后和重复模式难以被普通表格先验捕捉。为此,我们提出Trio架构,采用时序-空间-样本注意力机制:时序注意力捕获窗口内动态,空间注意力建模变量间依赖,样本注意力检索相关的历史输入-输出配对以指导当前预测。不追求通用型PFN式预测器,而是探索如何在模型中显式组织并复用历史示例。进一步设计时间序列结构因果模型(TS-SCM)生成器,创建包含动态滞后、变量交互、噪声、反馈与分布漂移的结构化合成任务。在合成、工业及公开基准上的实验表明,该架构显著提升预测性能;初步零样本实验暗示TS-SCM生成的任务可提供有效结构先验,而通用型PFN式时间序列预测仍是开放问题。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate time-series forecasting requires models to reason over temporal dynamics, cross-variable dependencies, and historical input-output correspondences. Recent Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) suggest that synthetic tasks can be useful for learning transferable inference behavior. However, directly transferring this paradigm to time-series forecasting remains difficult, since temporal order, dynamic lags, and recurring historical patterns are not naturally captured by ordinary tabular priors. Motivated by this observation, we propose Trio, a sample-aware time-series forecasting architecture based on Temporal-Spatial-Sample attention. Temporal attention captures within-window dynamics, spatial attention models inter-variable dependencies, and sample attention retrieves relevant historical lookback-future pairs to guide the current prediction. Rather than claiming a fully general PFN-style forecaster, our goal is to study how historical input-output examples can be explicitly organized and reused within a forecasting model. We further introduce a Time-Series Structural Causal Model (TS-SCM) generator to create structured synthetic forecasting tasks with dynamic lags, cross-variable interactions, noise, feedback, and distributional drift. Experiments on synthetic, industrial, and public benchmarks show that the proposed architecture improves forecasting performance. Exploratory zero-shot experiments further suggest that TS-SCM-generated tasks may provide useful structural priors, while fully general PFN-style time-series forecasting remains an open problem.
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