arXiv:2606.07382cs.LGstat.ML2026-06

用随机插值重写高维协方差估计,提升稳定性与准确性。

Covariance Shrinkage via Stochastic Interpolation

论文配图:Covariance Shrinkage via Stochastic Interpolation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将协方差收缩建模为参数化随机插值上的经验风险最小化。
  • 提出调度、耦合映射和早停三类降风险机制,可有效降低估计误差。
  • 适用于需要稳定协方差估计的高维数据场景,如神经影像分析。

我们将经典的高维协方差估计收缩方法重新表述为在源分布与目标分布之间的参数化随机插值上的经验风险最小化。该形式框架可还原已知收缩估计器作为特例,并揭示了三种降低统计风险的机制:(i) 调度:插值路径决定可接受协方差的类别,从而影响可达风险;(ii) 流映射与耦合:非平凡耦合结构(如最优传输解)能降低经验风险,非线性流映射使插值协方差脱离样本估计的特征基,实现特征向量正则化;(iii) 早停:通过拟合向量场积分定义的估计器,可通过近似真实插值分布引入额外的偏差-方差权衡。我们进一步提出一种神经网络插值估计器,并给出了其二次风险的上界,基于合成实验验证了方法有效性。最后,将其应用于真实神经影像数据,证明该方法在实践中具备更强的正则化能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We recast classical shrinkage of high-dimensional covariance estimators as empirical risk minimization over a parametric stochastic interpolant between a source and a target distribution. This formalism recovers known shrinkage estimators as special cases and reveals three distinct mechanisms for reducing statistical risk: (i) Scheduling: the interpolant schedule determines the class of admissible covariances, and hence the achievable risk. (ii) Flow maps and couplings: whereas naive constructions amount to assuming independence between the distributions, specific coupling structures (e.g., solutions of optimal transport problems) can lower the empirical risk. Moreover, non-linear flow maps realizing such couplings free the interpolant covariance from the eigenbasis of the empirical estimate, enabling eigenvector regularization. (iii) Early stopping: estimators defined by integrating a regressed vector field afford an additional bias-variance trade-off through approximation of the true interpolant distribution. We then propose a neural estimator of the interpolant, together with an upper bound on its quadratic risk in terms of the interpolant approximation error, and validate both on synthetic experiments. Finally, we apply the estimator to real neuroimaging data, demonstrating the additional regularization power this approach offers in practice.

协方差估计随机插值高维统计神经影像

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