arXiv:2606.07569cs.LG2026-06中稿 · ICDM 2026

生成城市碳排放时间序列,保留多变量关联与波动细节。

TriHead-GAN: A Generative Adversarial Network with Triple-Head Discriminator for Carbon Emission Time Series Generation

论文配图:TriHead-GAN: A Generative Adversarial Network with Triple-Head Discriminator for Carbon Emission Time Series Generation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 三头判别器分别监督分布真实性、变量依赖和时序波动性。
  • 在长沙、中国、美国数据集上优于主流基线,提升下游预测精度。
  • 适合低数据量场景的碳排放模拟与政策评估应用。

精准的碳排放监测对气候政策及欧盟碳边境调节机制至关重要,但城市级高频监测数据仍极度稀缺,严重制约了数据密集型深度学习模型的应用。时间序列生成是自然解决方案,但现有基于GAN和扩散模型的生成器对碳排放数据的领域结构缺乏有效监督:虽能匹配边缘分布统计特征,却未能充分保留二氧化碳与伴生污染物、气象因素间的跨变量相关性,且常导致大气测量值的一阶差分统计坍塌,生成序列平均平滑而缺乏真实信号的阶梯式波动。本文提出TriHead-GAN,一种基于Transformer的对抗框架,其三头判别器联合监督三个互补方面:通过Wasserstein评判器确保分布真实性,通过无泄漏回归捕捉目标变量的跨变量依赖,通过相邻差分预测保障步骤级时序平滑性。生成器结合全局自注意力与局部时序卷积,每步注入噪声,并采用匹配一阶差分统计的抗平滑损失。在自收集的长沙碳排放数据集、两个公开碳数据集(中国、美国)以及ETTh1基准测试中,TriHead-GAN在绝大多数设置下表现优于主流基线,且生成的合成窗口显著提升了低资源碳监测场景下的下游预测准确性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate carbon emission monitoring is critical for climate policy and emerging regulatory mechanisms such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, yet city-level high-frequency monitoring data remain extremely scarce, severely limiting data-hungry deep learning models. Time series generation is a natural remedy, but existing GAN and diffusion-based generators often provide limited explicit supervision for the domain structure of carbon emission data: they may match marginal distributional statistics while insufficiently preserving cross-variable correlations between CO$_2$ and co-emitted pollutants and meteorological factors, and tend to collapse the first-difference statistics of atmospheric measurements, producing sequences that are smooth on average but lack the realistic step-wise variability of the underlying signals. We propose TriHead-GAN, a Transformer-based adversarial framework whose triple-head discriminator jointly supervises three complementary aspects of the joint distribution: distributional authenticity via a Wasserstein critic, cross-variable dependency via leakage-free regression of the target variable, and step-wise temporal smoothness via adjacent-difference prediction. The generator combines global self-attention with local temporal convolution, per-step noise injection, and an anti-smoothing loss that matches first-difference statistics. Experiments on the self-collected Changsha Carbon dataset, two public carbon datasets (China, US), and the ETTh1 benchmark show that TriHead-GAN achieves favorable performance over mainstream baselines on the vast majority of settings, and that the resulting synthetic windows improve downstream forecasting accuracy in low-resource carbon monitoring scenarios.

碳排放时间序列生成GAN多变量建模

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