QDSP模型精准预测早产儿死亡或脑瘫风险,且结果可解释。
QDSP: An Interpretable Structured Learning Framework for Predicting Death or Cerebral Palsy in Very Low Birth Weight Infants

- 通过特征子空间采样与可微决策结构融合,提升高维小样本数据建模能力。
- 在51例早产儿数据上准确率达92%,AUC达0.971,优于多个基线模型。
- 可识别出生体重、白质软化等关键临床指标,适合新生儿科医生使用。
极低出生体重婴儿(VLBWI)面临高死亡率和严重神经发育障碍(如脑瘫)风险,但在高维且数据有限的临床环境中,出院时的风险分层仍具挑战。本文提出QDSP——一种可解释的结构化学习框架,结合配额引导子空间采样(QSS)与可微决策引导结构感知(DSP)。QSS模块基于自助采样估计特征一致性,构建稳定且冗余低的特征子空间;DSP模块采用可微软斜决策结构,建模非线性临床交互关系,同时保留可追溯的决策依据。该框架在包含51名婴儿的真实世界队列中评估,并在三个公开医疗表格数据集上进行外部验证。在主队列中,QDSP准确率达到0.9200,AUC为0.9714,显著优于XGBoost、TabNet和TabPFN等代表性机器学习与深度表格式学习模型。在外部数据集上,无论样本量或临床分布如何变化,均保持良好判别力与校准性能。此外,基于SHAP分析与可微决策路径追踪,识别出囊性脑室周围白质软化(cPVL)和出生体重等临床相关预测因子,与已知新生儿病理生理学证据一致。结果表明,QDSP为早产儿出院时风险分层提供了一种可解释且鲁棒的框架,有助于新生儿重症监护中的早期个体化临床决策。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Very low birth weight infants (VLBWI) are at high risk of mortality and severe neurodevelopmental impairment, including cerebral palsy, yet reliable discharge-time prognostic stratification remains challenging in high-dimensional and data-limited clinical settings. To address this problem, we propose QDSP, an interpretable structured learning framework that integrates Quota-guided Subspace Sampling (QSS) and Differentiable-decision-guided Structure Perception (DSP). The QSS module constructs stability-aware and low-redundancy feature subspaces through bootstrap-based feature consistency estimation, whereas the DSP module employs differentiable soft oblique decision structures to model nonlinear clinical interactions while preserving traceable decision evidence. The proposed framework was evaluated on a real-world VLBWI cohort comprising 51 infants and further validated on three public medical tabular datasets. On the primary cohort, QDSP achieved an accuracy of 0.9200 and an AUC of 0.9714, outperforming representative machine learning and deep tabular learning baselines, including XGBoost, TabNet, and TabPFN. Across external datasets, QDSP maintained competitive discrimination and calibration under varying sample sizes and clinical distributions. In addition, SHAP-based analyses and differentiable decision-path tracing identified clinically relevant predictors, including cystic periventricular leukomalacia (cPVL) and birth weight, consistent with established neonatal pathophysiological evidence. These results suggest that QDSP provides an interpretable and robust framework for discharge-time risk stratification in VLBWI and may support early individualized clinical decision-making in neonatal intensive care settings.
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