arXiv:2606.07771astro-ph.IMastro-ph.GA2026-06

对比七种方法在星系属性预测中量化不确定性,发现局部有效框架更可靠。

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

论文配图:Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用冻结的AION-1嵌入,测试多种不确定性量化方法
  • 局部有效且可区分的(LVD)框架在低精度区域表现最佳
  • 适合需要可靠置信区间的天体物理推断任务

天文调查的基础模型提供了可迁移的表征,可用于下游回归任务如星系属性估计。然而仅靠点预测不足以支撑科学推断,可靠的不确定性量化(UQ)至关重要。我们基于冻结的AION-1基础模型嵌入,在星系红移、恒星质量、星族年龄、气相金属丰度和特定恒星形成率的回归任务上,比较了七种UQ方法。使用遗产巡天测光/成像与DESI光谱数据,以PROVABGS标签为真值。分布无关的合规模型在所有属性上实现了约90%名义置信水平下±1 pp的覆盖率;而非合规模型(如深度集成、MC Dropout)无法可靠校准。在合规模型中,分位数回归合规则(CQR)在模型预测最差的分箱中表现最优。更重要的是,只有局部有效且可区分(LVD)框架——尤其在作用于AION-1嵌入时——还具备有限样本的局部有效性,生成的区间能自适应每个星系的局部预测难度,而不仅依赖边际保证。这些结果确立了合规预测,特别是LVD,作为天体物理中基于基础模型嵌入进行不确定性感知推断的首选框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1\,pp of the nominal 90\% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

不确定性量化基础模型天体物理合规预测

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