arXiv:2606.08140cs.LG2026-06

用Transformer动态评估供应链金融交易风险,提升还款预测准确性。

TRUST-SCF: Transformer-based Risk Understanding and Scoring for Transactional Supply Chain Finance

论文配图:TRUST-SCF: Transformer-based Risk Understanding and Scoring for Transactional Supply Chain Finance
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于交易序列建模,融合使用率、延迟与时间因素进行风险判断。
  • 在30万+真实交易上,延迟预测优于传统方法,评分与未来还款强相关。
  • 无需外部评分标签,自动生成信用分,适合金融平台实时风控场景。

供应链金融(SCF)与LendTech平台亟需能响应交易行为变化、还款延迟和实际敞口的信用评分系统。本文提出TRUST-SCF,一种基于Transformer的交易级风险预测与动态信用评分框架。每个用户历史被表示为包含使用率、还款延迟和交易位置的交易令牌序列。主要贡献包括:(1) 金融对齐的注意力偏置,结合使用率相似性与近期性,使模型能在相似暴露条件下比较还款行为;(2) 在对数变换目标空间中进行连续还款延迟预测,降低极端延迟影响,增强对短期延迟的敏感度;(3) 标签高效信用评分流程,最终信用分不依赖外部显式评分标签,而是由预测延迟、模拟使用率下的潜在风险、实际未偿敞口及非线性校准共同决定。在超过30万笔真实交易数据上的实验表明,TRUST-SCF在延迟预测上优于序列基线,并生成与未来还款行为高度相关的评分,验证其在SCF与LendTech环境中实现自适应信用评分与交易级风险缓解的实用性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) and LendTech platforms need credit scoring systems that respond to evolving transaction behavior, repayment delays, and active exposure. We propose TRUST-SCF, a transformer-based framework for transaction-level risk prediction and dynamic credit scoring. Each user history is represented as a sequence of transaction tokens containing utilization, repayment delay and transaction position. The main contributions are: (1) a financially aligned attention bias that combines utilization similarity and recency, enabling the model to compare repayment behavior under comparable exposure conditions; (2) continuous repayment-delay prediction in a log-transformed target space, reducing the influence of extreme delays while improving sensitivity to short-delay behavior and (3) a label-efficient credit-scoring pipeline in which the final credit score is not trained using any explicit external credit-score label, but is instead derived from predicted delay, potential risk over simulated utilization, actual unpaid exposure, and nonlinear calibration. Experiments on real transaction data from more than 300,000 transactions show that TRUST-SCF improves delay prediction over sequential baselines and produces scores that are strongly associated with future repayment behavior. These results suggest that TRUST-SCF is a practical framework for adaptive credit scoring and transaction-level risk mitigation in SCF and LendTech environments.

供应链金融信用评分Transformer风险预测

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