用物理引导双解码,提升全球降水预报的极端事件捕捉能力。
Physics-Guided Dual Decoding and Spectral Supervision for Global 3D Hydrometeor Prediction

- 设计双解码框架,让气象场单向调控降水生成,避免多变量冲突。
- 72小时预测中超越地球模型与业务系统,在极端天气和频谱特征上表现更优。
- 结合小波分解与对抗训练,能真实还原飓风等强天气的三维云结构。
尽管全局数据驱动模型在预测连续大气变量方面表现优异,但三维水成物预报仍因变量零膨胀、长尾分布而困难重重。标准深度学习优化常导致预测结果过度平滑,削弱极端事件和空间纹理。我们提出PredHydro-Net,一种物理引导的双解码框架,有效缓解这一问题。为解决多变量优化冲突,模型采用解耦架构,使宏观热力学与动力场单向调控水成物生成。通过引入小波基频率解耦、谱幅匹配及对抗训练,模型在定量精度与空间保真度间取得良好平衡。在72小时全球评估中,PredHydro-Net优于时空深度学习基线(Earthformer与PredRNNv2)及业务系统(GFS),在极端事件检测与谱表示方面表现更佳。此外,其结果与全球降水测量(GPM)卫星反演具强气候一致性。模型能合理再现飓风伊恩等极端天气中的三维云结构。特征归因分析表明,其依赖于相对湿度与风辐合等物理前兆,提供了一种稳健的物理信息引导长尾大气预测方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables. Standard deep learning optimization often yields overly smooth forecasts, attenuating extreme events and spatial textures. We propose PredHydro-Net, a physics-guided dual-decoding framework that mitigates this smoothing. To resolve multi-variable optimization conflicts, it employs a decoupled architecture where macroscopic thermodynamic and dynamic fields unidirectionally modulate hydrometeor generation. By integrating wavelet-based frequency decoupling, spectral amplitude matching, and adversarial training, the model achieves a favorable trade-off between quantitative accuracy and spatial fidelity. In a 72-h global evaluation, PredHydro-Net outperforms both spatiotemporal deep learning baselines (Earthformer and PredRNNv2) and the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) in extreme-event detection and spectral representation. Furthermore, it demonstrates strong climatological consistency with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite retrievals. The model reasonably reproduces the three-dimensional cloud structures in extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Ian. Feature attribution confirms its dependence on physical precursors such as relative humidity and wind convergence, offering a robust, physics-informed approach to long-tailed atmospheric prediction.
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