首个风电基础模型,实现零样本超短期概率预测。
Tyan-WP: A Wind Power Foundation Model for Ultra-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting

- 融合站点静态特征与气象-发电耦合机制,构建风电专用大模型。
- 在127个站点上降低误差16.6%以上,提升预测精度与泛化能力。
- 适合新风电场快速接入电网,支持风险量化管理。
全球风电装机容量持续增长,尤其在中国,新风电场遍布多样地形与气候区。行业亟需高精度的风电基础模型,以缩短并网周期。现有针对特定站点的时间序列模型(TSMs)在数据稀缺时表现差,泛化能力弱;通用大时间序列模型(LTSMs)多仅支持单变量输入,难以利用站点静态属性及发电与气象变量间的依赖关系,导致精度不足。为此,我们提出首个面向超短期概率预测的风电基础模型Tyan-WP。该模型在覆盖超过12.6万个美国站点、为期七年的大规模风电数据集上预训练,通过两项领域特异性模块设计进一步提升零样本预测性能:基于坐标、地形和生态区元数据的静态站点嵌入,以及建模历史发电与气象协变量交互的发电感知气象融合(PAMF)模块。在统一评估协议下,Tyan-WP在10个域内站点上超越8个特定站点监督式TSMs,在127个域内站点上优于11个通用LTSMs,平均绝对误差(MAE)降低19.9%,均方根误差(RMSE)降低16.6%,连续排序概率评分(CRPS)降低22.2%,异常质量指标(AQL)降低21.7%,决定系数(R²)提升16.7%。此外,在6个真实英国站点上也展现出强跨地域泛化能力。结果表明,风电基础模型可实现无需目标站点训练的精准零样本预测,为新风电场快速并网与概率风险管控提供可行路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Global wind power capacity, especially in China, is booming, with new farms spanning diverse terrains and climates. The industry urgently needs accurate wind power foundation models to shorten commissioning and accelerate grid connection. This is because site-specific time series models (TSMs) are not well suited to data-scarce scenarios and generalize poorly, while generic large time series models (LTSMs) are mostly limited to univariate inputs and cannot fully exploit static site attributes or the dependencies between power and meteorological covariates, leading to insufficient accuracy. To fill this gap, we propose \textbf{Tyan-WP}, the first wind power foundation model for ultra-short-term probabilistic forecasting. Pretrained on a large-scale wind power dataset covering more than 126,000 U.S. sites over seven years, Tyan-WP further improves zero-shot forecasting through two domain-specific module designs: static site embedding using coordinate, terrain, and ecoregion metadata, and a power-aware meteorological fusion (PAMF) module that models interactions between historical power and meteorological covariates. Under a unified evaluation protocol, Tyan-WP surpasses eight site-specific supervised TSMs on 10 in-domain sites and outperforms eleven generic LTSMs on 127 in-domain sites, reducing MAE by 19.9%, RMSE by 16.6%, CRPS by 22.2%, and AQL by 21.7%, while raising R^2 by 16.7%. It further demonstrates strong cross-geography generalization on six real U.K. sites. These results show that the wind power foundation model can achieve accurate zero-shot forecasting without target-site training, providing a practical pathway for rapid turbine onboarding and probabilistic risk management at new wind farms.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。