融合出行与社交媒体数据,揭示危机中行为变化的跨领域规律。
Interpretable Crisis Behavior Analysis Using Mobility and Social Media Data

- 整合多源数据,用形式概念分析挖掘行为共现结构。
- 火灾案例中规则置信度达100%,预测提前2-7天有效。
- 生成可操作政策建议,适合应急管理和公共决策者。
危机会改变人们的出行方式和交流模式。在野火和疫情等紧急事件中,移动行为与在线情绪表达同步演变,但通常被孤立研究。本文提出一个统一且可解释的分析流程,融合出行与社交媒体数据,识别危机下的跨领域行为模式。通过两个案例验证:一是2025年1月洛杉矶野火的短期分析(原型案例),二是阿联酋2020年3月至2021年12月的长期新冠行为分析(主案例,671天)。该流程对异构日级信号进行对齐,转换为二值行为状态,使用形式概念分析(FCA)提取共现结构,挖掘关联规则,并通过时间分段留出测试验证规则稳定性。构建结构化政策翻译层,将稳健规则转化为包含触发条件、前置时间和行动预案的操作简报。结果揭示两类危机均存在清晰的跨领域行为结构:野火案例中,交通压力、恐惧/愤怒情绪与治理话语在33天窗口内高度耦合,关键规则置信度达100%,提升值最高达2.5;新冠案例中,重复的出行适应与情绪波动产生8条同日稳定规则(留出测试通过率88%),以及40条清洁的预测规则,具有2至7天的前瞻能力。研究表明,可解释的多模态融合能生成科学可信且可付诸实践的危机智能。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Crises alter both how people move and how they communicate. During emergencies such as wildfires and pandemics, changes in mobility patterns and online emotional discourse evolve jointly, yet they are typically studied in isolation. This paper presents a unified and interpretable pipeline that integrates mobility and social media data to identify cross-domain behavioral patterns in crisis settings. The framework is evaluated through two case studies: a short-horizon analysis of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires (prototype case) and a longitudinal analysis of UAE COVID-19 behavior from March 2020 to December 2021 (primary case, 671 days). The pipeline aligns heterogeneous daily signals, transforms them into binary behavioral states, applies Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) to extract co-occurrence structure, mines association rules, and validates rule stability through chronological holdout testing. A structured policy-translation layer renders robust rules as operational briefs specifying triggers, lead times, and action playbooks. Results reveal clear cross-domain behavioral structure in both crises. In the wildfire case, traffic stress, fear/anger sentiment, and governance discourse are tightly coupled within a 33-day window, with key rules reaching 100\% confidence and lift scores up to 2.5. In the COVID case, repeated mobility adaptation and sentiment volatility yield 8 stable same-day rules (88\% holdout pass rate) and 40 clean predictive rules with 2--7 day lead horizons. The work demonstrates that interpretable multimodal fusion can produce both scientifically credible and policy-actionable crisis intelligence.
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