AI数据中心将大幅增加欧洲电力需求,威胁碳中和目标实现。
Powering the Future of AI: Navigating the Trade-offs for Europe's Energy Transition and Net-Zero Goals
- 构建21种AI增长情景的欧洲优化模型,量化其能源与排放影响。
- 2050年额外用电量达73-723太瓦时,累计碳排放可能超67-181百万吨。
- 关键枢纽需新增200小时稳定电源,效率提升可显著降低系统压力。
全球AI的快速扩张推动了高能耗超大规模数据中心(DCs)的普及,使其成为电力系统规划与运行中的结构性挑战。通过构建覆盖欧洲的21种AI增长情景的空间显式优化模型,我们系统量化了数据中心带来的额外用电需求、容量要求、碳排放及运行影响。结果显示,到2050年,AI可能带来73至723太瓦时的额外用电,导致2030至2050年间累计碳排放超出目标67至181百万吨。分析表明,2030年后,人工智能基础设施布局将更多受稳定电源和系统灵活性制约,而非单纯依赖清洁能源供给。在中等情景下,AI需额外200小时的稳定发电,使关键枢纽的平准化度电成本(LCOE)上升35欧元/兆瓦时。即使在最悲观情景下,现有基础设施也需新增70吉瓦容量;而在可控增长路径下,该数值可达226吉瓦。研究进一步发现,数据中心的工作负载动态深刻影响能量调度、系统灵活性与碳排放,而能效提升可显著减少容量需求与系统峰值。尽管2050年净零目标仍可达成,但中间阶段存在重大碳排放风险,欧盟若不针对这一加速数字化转型调整政策,可能偏离碳中和目标。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The rapid expansion of AI globally has led to the proliferation of energy-intensive hyperscale data centres (DCs), making them as a structurally challenging component in power system planning and operation. Using a spatially explicit optimisation model of Europe across 21 AI growth scenarios, we systematically quantify additional demand, capacity requirements, emissions, and operational impacts of DCs. Results indicate that AI could drive 73-723 TWh of extra demand by 2050, risking cumulative emissions overshoots of 67-181 MtCO2 between 2030 and 2050. Our analysis indicates that after 2030, the geography of AI infrastructure will be shaped more by firm power and system flexibility than by the mere abundance of clean energy. In moderate scenarios, AI requires an additional of 200 hours of firm generation, which increases LCOE by 35 EUR/MWh in key hubs. We show that even under the pessimistic scenarios, existing infrastructure would require 70 GW additional capacity, while under managed growth pathways, this expansion could reach 226 GW. We further find DCs workload dynamics strongly shape energy dispatch, system flexibility, and emissions, while improved efficiency significantly reduces capacity needs, and system peaks. While our findings suggest that net-zero targets for 2050 may be achieved, critical emission risks may appear in the intermediate years, and the EU may compromise its carbon-neutral goals unless policies adapt to this accelerating digital transformation.
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