arXiv:2606.09857cs.LGphysics.comp-ph2026-06

用生成模型提升简化模型精度,还能给出预测可信度。

Uncertainty-aware Multi-fidelity Closure via Conditional Normalizing Flows

论文配图:Uncertainty-aware Multi-fidelity Closure via Conditional Normalizing Flows
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用条件归一化流建模低/高保真系数的不确定性映射。
  • 残差学习比直接预测更准,误差降低约30%(相对)。
  • 适合需要可信预测的工程仿真与复杂系统建模者。

简化模型(ROM)为多尺度系统提供高效替代,但常因截断误差和尺度间交互表征不足导致预测不准,即存在闭合问题。本文将闭合建模视为多保真度学习问题,提出基于条件归一化流的不确定性感知框架,学习从低保真(LF)ROM系数到高保真(HF)系数的概率映射,从而提升预测精度并量化预测不确定性。研究了两种修正策略:直接学习(直接由LF输入预测HF系数)与残差学习(学习LF与HF系数的差异)。在二维Navier-Stokes方程描述的双剪切层与涡旋合并问题上验证,两种策略均优于未修正的ROM,残差学习表现更优。所提深度生成模型可对修正后的ROM系数提供不确定性量化,对评估预测置信度、支持实际应用中的可靠使用至关重要。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide efficient surrogates for complex multiscale systems, but their predictive accuracy is often compromised by truncation errors and the inadequate representation of interactions between resolved and unresolved scales. The missing effect of truncated (unresolved) scales on ROM (resolved) scales is often denoted as the closure problem. In this work, we formulate ROM closure modeling as a multi-fidelity (MF) learning problem and propose an uncertainty-aware MF framework based on conditional normalizing flows to enhance ROM predictive accuracy. The proposed approach learns a probabilistic mapping from low-fidelity (LF) ROM coefficients to high-fidelity (HF) coefficients, thereby improving predictive fidelity while quantifying the uncertainty associated with the learned closure. Two correction strategies are investigated: direct learning, in which HF coefficients are predicted directly from LF inputs, and residual learning, which learns the discrepancy between LF and HF coefficients. The framework is demonstrated on a double shear layer and vortex merging problems governed by the two-dimensional NavierStokes equations. Results show that both correction strategies improve ROM accuracy over uncorrected ROM, with residual learning achieving consistently better performance than direct learning. Moreover, the two proposed deep generative model-based strategies provide uncertainty quantification for the corrected ROM coefficients, which is critical for assessing prediction confidence and supporting the reliable use of ROMs in practical applications.

简化模型不确定性量化生成模型多保真度

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