arXiv:2606.09892cs.LGstat.ME2026-06

用文本+时间信息联合建模,从制造系统报警日志中发现可信因果关系。

LMT: A Bayesian Framework for Causal Discovery from Textual Alarm Records in Manufacturing Systems

论文配图:LMT: A Bayesian Framework for Causal Discovery from Textual Alarm Records in Manufacturing Systems
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 融合大模型语义分析与泊松过程时间建模,构建贝叶斯因果推断框架。
  • 在小样本报警数据下仍能准确识别事件间因果关系,优于纯文本方法。
  • 适合工业故障诊断、系统可解释性分析等需要因果推理的场景。

工程与制造系统中的文本事件记录(如报警日志)日益成为重要数据源。工程师不仅关注事件关联或重复模式,更关心哪些事件会实际触发或影响其他事件。文本描述中可能包含因果线索,大语言模型(LLM)为此提供了有效信号提取工具。然而,仅依赖LLM生成的语义信息难以实现精准因果发现,因语义模式无法直接揭示因果机制,易将相关性误判为因果性或混淆频繁序列模式。为此,本文提出LMT:一种结合文本描述与时间戳的贝叶斯因果发现框架。LMT首先利用LLM从事件描述中提取语义因果信号,并构建事件类型或事件聚类间的因果图先验分布;随后通过基于泊松过程的似然函数引入时间证据,使基于文本的先验得到时间统计证据的修正。该框架生成的因果图兼具可解释性与数据支持。模拟实验表明,该方法在多种设置下均有效,尤其在小样本报警事件场景中表现突出。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Textual event records, such as alarm logs, have become an increasingly common data source in engineering and manufacturing systems. Beyond identifying correlations or recurring patterns, engineers are often interested in understanding which types of events causally trigger or influence other events during system operation. Textual event descriptions may contain semantic clues about such causal relationships, and recent large language models (LLMs) provide a promising tool for extracting these signals. However, relying solely on LLM-encoded textual information is insufficient for accurate causal discovery, since semantic patterns do not directly reveal causal mechanisms and may confuse causation with correlation or frequent sequential patterns. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{LMT}, a Bayesian causal discovery framework for engineering event data that jointly leverages textual descriptions and timestamps. Specifically, LMT first uses LLMs to extract semantic causal signals from event descriptions and constructs a prior distribution over causal graphs among event types or event clusters. It then incorporates temporal evidence through a Poisson-process-based likelihood, allowing the LLM-informed prior to be refined by timestamp-based statistical evidence. By integrating the textual and temporal information, LMT produces a causal graph that is both interpretable and data-supported. Simulation studies show that the proposed framework is effective across different settings and is especially advantageous in small-sample alarm-event scenarios.

因果发现文本分析制造系统贝叶斯建模

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