arXiv:2606.09944econ.GNcs.AI2026-06被引 1

GAGI指数修正人均GDP,更真实反映民众实际福祉。

GAGI: A Gini-Adjusted GDP-per-Capita Index for Distribution-Aware Macroeconomic Welfare Monitoring

论文配图:GAGI: A Gini-Adjusted GDP-per-Capita Index for Distribution-Aware Macroeconomic Welfare Monitoring
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用基尼系数和物价水平调整人均GDP,生成可公开计算的福利指数
  • 2010-2026年数据显示,各国福利增长显著落后于名义GDP增速
  • 适合政策制定者、经济监测机构用于识别自动化带来的分配不公

人均GDP是政府衡量经济繁荣的默认指标,但忽视了收入分配与通胀对生活福祉的直接影响。现有不平等调整收入指标虽存在,但缺乏可操作的年度监测工具:一种能从公开数据中每年计算、无需建模假设、标准化后便于跨年、跨国比较的统计量。本文提出基尼调整后人均GDP指数(GAGI):通过基尼系数(1−G)与价格水平对各国人均GDP进行再缩放,并以2010年为基准标准化。该指数具备可复现性与透明性,适用于任何需追踪福利调整后繁荣度的场景。应用于G7经济体2010–2026年数据发现,福利调整后的繁荣度持续且日益偏离名义GDP增长;2022年后差距急剧扩大,与新冠疫情后遗症及生成式AI部署加速时间吻合。我们主张GAGI应作为传统宏观经济监测的必要补充——仅跟踪总量产出的工具将系统性忽略自动化带来的分配损害,即使报告增长仍强劲。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

GDP per capita is the default lens through which governibng bodies track the economic prosperity and consequences of economic events , yet it is blind to two first-order determinants of lived prosperity: income/wealth distribution and inflation impact. Inequality-adjusted income measures are themselves not new but What is missing from the macroeconomic monitoring toolkit specifically is not a welfare concept but an operational monitoring trigger: a statistic minimal enough to compute annually from public data, transparent enough to audit without modelling assumptions, and normalised so that year-on-year, cross-country change ? the quantity a regulator needs to act on? is legible. We assemble such an instrument, the Gini- Adjusted GDP per Capita Index (GAGI): a reproducible, publicly computable formulation that rescales each country's GDP per capita by its inequality-adjustment factor (1-G) and its price level, normalised to a 2010 baseline. GAGI is a general-purpose welfare index, not inherently specific to AI automation, applicable wherever welfare-adjusted prosperity needs tracking. Applying GAGI to the G7 economies over 2010-2026, we show that welfare-adjusted prosperity has diverged persistently and increasingly from headline GDP growth, that the divergence widens sharply after 2022, temporally coincident with, though not, on this evidence alone, demonstrated to be caused by the after effects of COVID and the acceleration of generative-AI deployment. We argue that GAGI is a necessary complement to GDP-based monitoring: any macroeconomic monitoring instrument that tracks only aggregate output will systematically miss the distributional harm that automation can cause even while reported growth remains strong.

宏观福利基尼系数经济监测

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