arXiv:2606.09959cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

用时间信息提升强降雨预报精度,模型更准更可靠。

Temporal Context Conditioning for Seasonality-Aware Precipitation Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall

论文配图:Temporal Context Conditioning for Seasonality-Aware Precipitation Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入昼夜与季节循环编码,动态调节中间特征
  • 对高强降雨事件预报准确率提升显著,尤其罕见事件
  • 轻量设计低成本,适合实际业务部署

降水临近预报正越来越多地采用深度学习模型,直接从近期雷达观测中学习。尽管这些模型能有效捕捉短时降水运动,但常缺乏降雨发展所处气象条件的广泛上下文信息。本文研究了轻量级时间上下文对基于雷达的预报是否有益,特别是在高强降雨场景下。提出时间感知小注意力U-Net(TA-SmaAt-UNet),在核心SmaAt-UNet基础上加入时间条件层,利用昼夜和年周期编码调制中间特征表示。在KNMI雷达降水数据上的实验表明,时间条件对稀有、高强度降水事件最有益,同时改善了季节变化表征及降雨强度分布预测。层导通性分析显示,新增的时间条件层虽参数极少,却被模型主动使用。结果表明,简单且物理启发的时间上下文可提升深度学习降水预报的真实性和可靠性。模型与训练代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Precipitation nowcasting is increasingly being approached with deep learning models that learn directly from recent radar observations. Although such models can efficiently capture short-term precipitation motion, they often lack broader contextual information about the meteorological conditions under which rainfall develops. This paper investigates whether lightweight temporal context can improve radar-based nowcasting, particularly for high-intensity rainfall. We propose the Time-Aware Small-Attention U-Net (TA-SmaAt-UNet), which extends the core SmaAt-UNet model with temporal conditioning layers that use cyclical encodings of time-of-day and time-of-year to modulate intermediate feature representations. Experiments on KNMI radar precipitation data show that temporal conditioning is most beneficial for rare, high-intensity precipitation events, while also improving the representation of seasonal variability and predicted rainfall-intensity distributions. A layer conductance analysis further indicates that the added temporal conditioning layers are actively used by the model despite their small parameter cost. These findings suggest that simple, physically motivated temporal context can improve the realism and reliability of deep learning-based precipitation nowcasts. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on \href{https://github.com/gijsvn/TA-SmaAt-UNet}{GitHub}.

降水预报时间建模雷达数据深度学习

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