提出一种新型非线性参数估计器,可有效提升状态空间模型的估计精度。
Nonlinear Bayesian Estimator for Parameter Learning: A Fixed-Point Characterization
- 通过固定点架构耦合两个线性最小均方误差估计器,融合动态基底统计量。
- 双状态-参数估计器在蒙特卡洛实验中实现最低参数均方误差。
- 适用于高维非线性状态空间模型的参数学习,尤其适合复杂动态系统建模。
本文提出一种针对维纳型状态空间模型的非线性参数估计器,基于固定点结构,将未知参数与隐变量的两个仿射最小均方误差(MMSE)估计器耦合。该结构保留了最优仿射MMSE参数估计器的功能形式,同时引入动态基底统计量(DBS)以总结非线性基函数的评估结果。文中设计两种DBS构建策略,形成两种非线性估计框架:双基底-参数估计器结合仿射基底与仿射参数估计器;双状态-参数估计器先计算仿射状态估计及其协方差,再通过高斯DBS算子映射得到DBS估计。两种双估计器均具有固定点表征,交替使用对方更新后的先验分布,其先验由前一迭代的插值估计统计量获得。通过大量蒙特卡洛实验验证,双基底-参数估计器的参数均方误差与纯仿射估计器相当,而双状态-参数估计器达到最低参数均方误差,优于双基底-参数估计器、纯仿射估计器以及经典粒子吉布斯和期望最大化方法的序列蒙特卡洛变体。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper presents a nonlinear parameter estimator for Wiener-type state-space models obtained as a fixed-point architecture that couples two affine minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) estimators: one for the unknown parameters and one for latent variables. The architecture retains the functional structure of the optimal affine MMSE parameter estimator while incorporating Dynamic Basis Statistics (DBS) estimates that summarize nonlinear basis-function evaluations. Two DBS construction strategies are developed, leading to two nonlinear estimator frameworks. The dual basis-parameter estimator combines an affine basis estimator with the affine parameter estimator, whereas the dual state-parameter estimator first computes affine state estimates and their covariances, then maps these state-estimate statistics through a Gaussian DBS operator to obtain DBS estimates. Both dual estimators admit fixed-point characterizations that alternate between estimating each component using the updated prior of the other, obtained from that component's plug-in estimate statistics from the previous iteration. The efficacy of the proposed methods is examined via extensive Monte Carlo experiments, showing that the dual basis-parameter estimator attains parameter mean-squared errors comparable to those of the purely affine parameter estimator, while the dual state-parameter estimator achieves the lowest parameter mean-squared error, outperforming both the dual basis-parameter and purely affine parameter estimators, as well as sequential Monte Carlo variants of classical Particle Gibbs and Expectation-Maximization schemes.
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