让模型解释为什么自信,不只是说明预测结果。
Beyond Explaining Predictions: Logic-Based Explanations for Confidence in Machine Learning Models
- 提出最小置信阈值(MCT),量化解释的最低可信度保证。
- 新方法生成的解释在保持准确的同时,显著提升置信度下限。
- 适合对决策可靠性要求高的医疗、金融等关键场景。
机器学习在关键领域应用日益广泛,其预测结果及置信度直接影响重要决策。为提升透明度,需理解模型为何对某预测保持高或低置信。现有基于逻辑的解释方法提供可满足预测类别的最小特征子集,具备正确性保证,但仅关注分类行为,可能覆盖置信度较低的实例。本文提出最小置信阈值(MCT),量化解释所保证的最低置信水平。在此基础上,构建置信感知的归因解释,不仅保留预测类别,还满足用户指定的置信阈值。将MCT计算建模为优化问题,并设计算法生成满足目标置信度的最小解释。在梯度提升树的二分类任务上评估,结果显示传统解释的置信保证远低于原实例置信度;而新方法在解释长度仅小幅增加的前提下,显著提升了解释的最低置信保障。该方法适用于同时重视预测准确性与置信度的可信决策场景。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Machine learning is increasingly used in critical domains, where both predictions and their associated confidence levels influence important decisions. To enhance transparency in such scenarios, it is important to understand why a model is confident or uncertain about its predictions. Recent logic-based approaches provide abductive explanations, minimal subsets of features sufficient to preserve the predicted class, with correctness guarantees. However, these methods focus solely on classification behavior and may produce explanations that cover instances with low predictive confidence. In this work, we introduce the concept of Minimum Confidence Threshold (MCT), which quantifies the weakest confidence guarantee provided by an abductive explanation. Building upon this concept, we propose confidence-aware abductive explanations, which preserve not only the predicted class but also a user-specified confidence guarantee. We formulate MCT computation as an optimization problem and introduce an algorithm for generating minimal explanations that satisfy a desired confidence threshold. We evaluate the proposed framework on boosted trees for binary classification, although the approach is applicable to other machine learning models that provide confidence scores. Experimental results show that traditional abductive explanations often provide substantially weaker confidence guarantees than the confidence associated with the explained instance itself. In contrast, confidence-aware explanations consistently improve the minimum confidence guaranteed by an explanation while requiring only a modest increase in explanation length. These properties make the proposed approach particularly suitable for applications where both predictive correctness and confidence are essential for trustworthy decision making.
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