通过组合融合分析提升信用卡欺诈检测,效果优于单一模型和堆叠方法。
Validation-Stage Combinatorial Fusion Analysis for Imbalanced Credit-Card Fraud Detection

- 在验证阶段筛选互补模型并加权融合,提升预测性能。
- 最优结果达AUC-ROC 0.9405,AUPRC 0.6699,F1 0.6373。
- 适合需要高精度欺诈检测的金融风控场景。
信用卡欺诈检测因欺诈交易稀少、成本高且分布不均而困难。尽管梯度提升树模型在结构化交易数据上表现已优,但其组合方法的价值仍不明确。本文在IEEE-CIS欺诈检测基准上检验组合融合分析(CFA)是否仍具价值。采用无泄露的60/20/20训练/验证/测试划分,评估由7个基分类器构建的480种融合配置。最佳测试结果来自随机森林、XGBoost与LightGBM的多样性加权得分融合(DEF WtScore),AUC-ROC为0.9405,AUPRC为0.6699,F1为0.6373。基于1000次重抽样的置信区间显示,该方法在所有三项指标上均显著优于最强单模型。CFA在AUC-ROC上与软投票持平,在AUPRC和F1上更优,且优于堆叠。使用CTGAN生成合成欺诈样本的实验得负结果:合成数据反而降低个体模型与CFA性能。总体而言,CFA在此场景中并非用于组合所有模型,而是作为验证阶段选择小而互补子集并赋予多样性感知权重的有效工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Credit-card fraud detection is difficult because fraudulent transactions are rare, costly, and unevenly distributed. Strong gradient-boosted tree models already perform well on structured transaction data, so the value of another fusion method is not obvious. This paper examines whether Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), which searches over model subsets and rank-score fusion rules, can still add value on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection benchmark. Using a leakage-free 60/20/20 train/validation/test protocol, we evaluate 480 fusion configurations built from seven base classifiers. The best test-set result comes from diversity-weighted score fusion of Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM (DEF WtScore), with AUC-ROC = 0.9405, AUPRC = 0.6699, and F1 = 0.6373. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 1,000 resamples show that the gains over the strongest single model exclude zero for all three metrics. CFA matches soft voting on AUC-ROC, improves AUPRC and F1, and outperforms stacking in this setting. A CTGAN augmentation experiment gives a negative result: synthetic fraud samples degrade both individual models and CFA. Overall, CFA is most useful here not as a way to combine every classifier, but as a validation-stage method for choosing a small, complementary subset and assigning diversity-aware weights.
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