NOVA从驾驶轨迹中自动发现可解释的跟车与变道模型,性能超越现有方法。
NOVA: Symbolic Regression Discovery of Interpretable Car-Following and Lane-Change Models with Driver Heterogeneity

- 基于符号回归框架,从原始轨迹数据中挖掘人类驾驶行为的数学表达式。
- 跟车模型在基准测试中达到1.376 m/s²的RMSE,优于基线0.135 m/s²。
- 模型具有强泛化性,零样本迁移至不同高速路段,且适合研究驾驶差异。
我们提出NOVA,一种自主的符号回归框架,能从原始轨迹数据中识别出具有最小行为先验的可解释跟车与变道结构。该方法应用于来自NGSIM I-80和US-101数据集的4,765,788条有效驾驶观测。其基于Rust的确定性搜索引擎评估超过10,000个候选代数结构,最终发现一个简洁的双项加速度模型,采用前向滚动均值预测目标。在两种互补预处理流程下,NOVA在意图预测基准上实现1.376 m/s²的RMSE(R²=15.57%),优于最佳重校准符号回归基线(SR-LLM, PNAS~2025)0.135 m/s²。在八项独立实验中,一个主导的非线性项始终构成人类跟车行为的核心;残差引导扩展进一步将该结构与经典的碰撞避免心理物理学理论关联。所发现特征算子在不同高速路段间零样本迁移,仅损失不到3个百分点的R²。扩展至多分类逻辑回归框架的变道建模,在502名未见驾驶员的严格车辆ID留出测试中,达到67.4%的平衡准确率,比现有基线提升29.8个百分点(三分类任务)。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We present NOVA, an autonomous symbolic regression framework that identifies interpretable car-following and lane-change structures from raw trajectory data with minimal behavioral priors. Applied to 4,765,788 active driving observations from the NGSIM I-80 and US-101 datasets, NOVA's deterministic Rust-powered search engine evaluates over 10,000 candidate algebraic structures and identifies a compact two-term acceleration model under a forward-shifted rolling-mean prediction target. Evaluated under two complementary preprocessing pipelines, NOVA achieves $RMSE = 1.376 m/s^2$ ($R^2 = 15.57\%$) on the intent-forecasting benchmark, outperforming the best recalibrated symbolic-regression baseline (SR-LLM, PNAS~2025) by 0.135 m/s$^2$ in RMSE under an identical evaluation protocol. Across eight independent experiments, a single dominant nonlinear term emerges as a robust backbone of human car-following; a residual-guided extension further links the selected structure to an established psychophysical theory of collision avoidance. The discovered feature operators transfer zero-shot between freeway sites with under 3 pp $R^2$ loss. Extended to lane-change modelling within a multinomial logit framework, NOVA achieves 67.4\% balanced accuracy under strict vehicle-ID holdout on 502 unseen drivers, surpassing existing lane-changing baselines by +29.8 percentage points on a three-class problem.
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