arXiv:2606.10607cs.LGcs.AI2026-06被引 2

用大模型当裁判,整合多个因果发现算法结果,提升准确性。

Causal Ensemble Agent: Hierarchical Causal Discovery with LLM-guided Expert Reweighting

论文配图:Causal Ensemble Agent: Hierarchical Causal Discovery with LLM-guided Expert Reweighting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 多算法结果通过线性加权聚合,大模型动态调整专家权重。
  • 在合成与真实数据集上,性能超越现有方法,尤其在边界情况更优。
  • 适合需要高可靠因果推断的研究者,如医疗、金融决策领域。

因果发现旨在从观测数据中揭示因果结构,对现实决策至关重要。然而不同算法常产生相互冲突的结果,难以判断真伪。传统方法依赖数值和统计假设,忽略特征描述等领域的先验信息。虽有研究尝试用大语言模型(LLM)直接询问因果关系,但易因与实际数据脱节而不可靠。为此,我们提出因果集成代理(CEA),通过线性意见聚合整合不同图层级的统计发现专家的结构见解,并以大模型作为元裁判,在聚合置信度接近决策边界时动态重定专家权重,从而生成更优更完整的因果图。在合成与真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,CEA在多种因果发现方法中表现最优,验证了大模型用于因果发现元分析的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structures from observational data, which is crucial for real-world decision-making. However, different causal discovery algorithms can produce divergent results that conflict with each other, complicating the identification of accurate causal graphs. Traditional approaches rely on numerical values and statistical assumptions, often ignoring rich domain-specific information, such as feature descriptions, which could also help structure learning. While recent works explore using Large Language Models (LLMs) to infer causal relations via direct queries, such methods can be unreliable due to a lack of alignment with the actual data. To address these limitations, we propose Causal Ensemble Agent (CEA), a novel framework that aggregates structural insights from statistical discovery experts across different graph levels via linear opinion pooling, and uses an LLM as a meta-referee to dynamically reweight experts when the aggregated confidence is close to the decision boundary, thereby composing an improved and more complete causal graph. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that CEA achieves the strongest overall performance across a wide range of causal discovery methods, highlighting the effectiveness of using LLMs for meta-analysis in causal discovery.

因果发现大模型集成学习智能推理

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