arXiv:2606.11162cs.LG2026-06

用神经微分方程建模不规则网格物理系统,实现任意时间点的长期预测。

COGENT: Continuous Graph Emulators with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Long-Term Physical Forecasting

论文配图:COGENT: Continuous Graph Emulators with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Long-Term Physical Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于图结构编码历史状态与外部强迫,生成节点上下文向量
  • 通过连续潜动力学模型,在长时序上保持稳定预测性能
  • 适合需要高精度长时预报和任意时间查询的物理模拟场景

本文提出COGENT,一种基于神经常微分方程的连续图模拟器,用于不规则地理空间网格上的长期物理预测。COGENT通过图结构历史编码器对系统状态和外部强迫的历史进行编码,生成捕捉局部空间交互与时间演化的节点级上下文向量。这些向量初始化并条件化一个潜空间神经常微分方程,其动态由插值后的未来强迫和显式相对推进时间驱动。通过将预测轨迹建模为连续潜动力学系统,COGENT可在任意未来时间点生成预测,不受固定时间离散化的限制。残差解码器将潜轨迹映射回未来物理状态,实现直接多步预测,无需反复输入预测结果。该框架统一了图表示、历史条件化潜动力学与连续时间推进。为稳定长时程监督训练,我们还提出了有效的推进时长采样策略和渐进式调度机制。在冰盖-海平面系统模型生成的瞬态冰盖模拟上评估,相比自回归图基基准模型,COGENT展现出更优的长期稳定性。结果表明,连续图神经微分方程为不规则地理空间网格上的可扩展物理预测提供了有前景的方法,尤其适用于需稳定长时预测和任意时间状态查询的应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In this work, we present COGENT, a continuous graph emulator with Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for long-term physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes. COGENT encodes a finite history of system states and associated forcing fields and external forcings with a graph-based history encoder, producing node-wise context vectors that capture both local spatial interactions and temporal evolution. These context vectors initialize and condition a latent Neural Ordinary Differential Equation whose dynamics are driven by interpolated future forcings and explicit relative rollout time. By modeling the forecast trajectory as a continuous latent dynamical system, COGENT can generate predictions at arbitrary future times rather than being restricted to a fixed temporal discretization. A residual decoder maps the resulting latent trajectories back to future physical states, enabling direct multi-step forecasting without repeatedly feeding predicted states back into the model. This formulation combines graph-based spatial representation, history-conditioned latent dynamics, and continuous-time rollout in a unified framework for mesh-based physical simulation emulation. In order to stabilize training with long-horizon supervision, we also propose effective rollout-horizon sampling and a progressive rollout-horizon scheduling strategy. We evaluate COGENT on transient ice-sheet simulations generated by the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model, demonstrating improved long-range stability over autoregressive graph baselines. These results suggest that continuous graph Neural ODEs provide a promising methodology for scalable physical forecasting on irregular geospatial meshes, particularly in applications that require stable long-horizon predictions and the ability to query system states at arbitrary times.

物理预测神经ODE图神经网络长时预报

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