arXiv:2606.11865stat.MLcs.LG2026-06被引 4

在标签偏移下,用两种方法让预测集既准确又紧凑。

Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation

论文配图:Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 后处理校准:调整预测阈值,不改模型参数。
  • 训练中适配:直接修正模型参数,提升预测效率。
  • 高维场景下可缩小43%预测区间,适合部署时保障精度。

Conformal Bayes 结合贝叶斯后验预测与置信校准,生成兼具统计有效性与几何高效性的预测集。本文从统一视角研究标签偏移下的 Conformal Bayes,识别出两种互补策略:后处理校准通过重要性加权的分位数修正校准阈值,仅调整后验预测而不改变参数后验;训练中适配则将参数后验本身转向目标域,使最高预测密度区域(HPD)成为目标预测下的有效预测集,其效率依赖模型且不保证有限样本条件最优。两个受控实验表明,在低维、良好估计场景下,策略A产生最窄有效区间;在高维、欠定场景下,策略B在保持覆盖率不变前提下实现最高43%的区间宽度缩减,基于源域采样和标签偏移假设。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms. \emph{Post-hoc calibration} tilts the posterior predictive toward the target domain and corrects the conformal threshold via an importance-weighted quantile, leaving the parameter posterior unchanged. \emph{In-training adaptation} tilts the parameter posterior itself to the target domain, producing a corrected predictive whose highest predictive density region serves as the highest predictive density (HPD)-based prediction set under the fitted target predictive; efficiency is model-dependent and does not imply finite-sample conditional optimality. Two controlled experiments isolate the regime-dependence of each strategy: in the low-dimensional, well-estimated regime Strategy~A produces the narrowest valid intervals, while in the high-dimensional, underdetermined regime Strategy~B achieves up to $43\%$ width reduction at unchanged coverage, under the stated source-sampling and label-shift assumptions.

贝叶斯预测集标签偏移校准

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