arXiv:2606.12476cs.LGcs.AI2026-06被引 1

提出快速检测文本幻觉启动的方法,显著缩短报警延迟。

Quickest Detection of Hallucination Onset: Delay Bounds and Learned CUSUM Statistics

  • 将幻觉检测建模为快速变化检测问题,基于马尔可夫状态模型。
  • 新方法在0.01误报率下延迟仅11-13个词,优于基线的31词。
  • 揭示分类指标掩盖时序延迟,适合关注实时监控的开发者。

令牌级幻觉检测器通常以所有令牌的AUC评估,但流式监测应关注反应时间——即幻觉开始到报警之间的令牌数。本文将幻觉启始检测建模为最快变化检测问题。基于在RAGTruth上验证的一阶马尔可夫隐状态模型,将任务置于经典变点理论框架内,得出Lorden下界:在0.01误报率下,检测延迟约为1.3个令牌。进一步表明,一个因果递归标签器可视为具有学习增量的CUSUM。该方法在捕获的启始中平均在11-13个令牌内检测到,而线性基线需31个令牌;但在该误报预算下,所有检测器仅捕捉不到三分之一的启始,召回率下的真实延迟为56-66个令牌:低误报率的启始检测极具挑战。受控分解表明,速度优势主要来自更好的每令牌得分,而非时间累积。一个类似Donsker-Varadhan的信息速率最优性定理解释了剩余数量级差距:学习得分仅实现特征携带散度的1/4.5,此缺陷无法通过校准消除,余下部分源于有限时域效应。分类指标掩盖了这一延迟结构;序列分析使其可测量。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Token-level hallucination detectors are evaluated as classifiers, by AUC over all tokens, yet a streaming monitor is judged by its reaction time: the number of tokens that pass between the onset of a hallucination and the alarm. We formulate hallucination onset detection as a quickest change detection problem. A first-order Markov model of the latent faithful/hallucinated state, validated on RAGTruth, places the task inside classical change-point theory and yields Lorden's lower bound on detection delay: about 1.3 tokens at a false-alarm rate of 0.01. We then show that a causal recurrent labeler acts as a CUSUM with a learned increment. Among the onsets it catches it detects in 11-13 tokens, against 31 for a linear per-token baseline, though at this false-alarm budget every detector catches under a third of onsets and the recall-honest delay is 56-66 tokens: low-false-alarm onset detection is hard. A controlled decomposition attributes the speed advantage mostly to a better per-token score rather than to temporal accumulation. An information-rate optimality theorem of Donsker-Varadhan type explains the remaining order-of-magnitude gap: the learned score realizes only 1/4.5 of the divergence the features carry, a deficit that recalibration cannot remove, with the remainder a finite-horizon effect. Classification metrics conceal this delay structure; sequential analysis makes it measurable.

幻觉检测序列分析延迟优化

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