arXiv:2606.13571cs.LGcs.AI2026-06被引 1

同时预测未来是否会有数据和数据值,提升不完整时间序列的预测能力。

Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting

论文配图:Existence Precedes Value: Joint Modeling of Observational Existence and Evolving States in Time Series Forecasting
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将观测存在性与状态变化联合建模,设计双流结构分别处理观测与数值。
  • 在真实工业数据上性能超越现有方法,尤其在缺失模式复杂时优势明显。
  • 适合需要判断未来是否有观测信号的场景,如传感器监控、医疗健康追踪。

现实世界的时间序列常因传感器休眠、传输延迟和事件驱动采样而严重缺失且不规则,导致可靠预测极具挑战。现有方法从填充值再预测的流程,演进到神经微分方程等连续时间模型。尽管这些方法改善了历史不规则性的建模,但在推理阶段仍隐含一个先验假设:未来的有效观测时间点是已知的。这一假设限制了实际应用价值,因为在许多系统中,更根本的问题不仅是未来数值是多少,而是是否会观测到有效数据。本文提出 Timeflies,一个统一框架,将预测重构为未来可观测性推断与数值估计的联合问题。为显式建模观测动态与状态演化之间的交互,Timeflies 采用观测流与数值流,通过三个专用模块实现可靠性感知嵌入、观测引导的依赖建模与联合预测。我们进一步构建 Shadow 基准,融合公开数据集中的自然缺失与真实工业数据,并引入 观测-数值联合熵(OVJE)指标,全面评估这种耦合可预测性。大量实验表明,Timeflies 持续优于现有方法,凸显了显式建模未来可观测性的关键作用。代码与数据集见 https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

时间序列缺失数据联合预测工业应用

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