首次将似稿分析与嵌入模型融合,用于日语文本作者归属的可信度评估。
Fusing Stylometric and Embedding Systems to Estimate Authorship Likelihood Ratios in Japanese
- 融合风格特征与上下文嵌入模型,提升判断可靠性。
- 融合系统使真实匹配的似然比上升,错误匹配的似然比下降。
- 适合法证文本分析、跨语言作者鉴定研究者参考。
似然比框架被广泛认为是法医科学中证据分析在逻辑和法律上的坚实基础,其在文本证据作者归属分析中的重要性日益凸显。然而,以往应用仅限于英文文本。与此同时,作者归属传统依赖多样化的风格特征,而预训练大模型则催生了新的上下文嵌入方法。通过融合这些不同方法有望提升性能,但尚未有研究将风格特征系统与嵌入系统结合应用于似然比框架。本研究首次将基于似然比的法医文本对比应用于日语数字文本,使用约1,000字符的博客片段,旨在:1)评估系统性能与似然比大小;2)考察风格特征系统与嵌入系统融合的影响。结果表明,融合系统保持良好校准性,同时:1)提升真实匹配的似然比幅度;2)降低虚假匹配的似然比幅度;3)增强整体区分能力。最优融合系统的对数似然比成本为0.32484,证明了该框架在日语中的可行性,以及跨异构系统融合的优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The likelihood ratio framework is widely recognized as the logically and legally sound basis for evidential analysis across forensic sciences, and its importance is increasingly acknowledged in analyses of authorship in textual evidence. To date, however, its application has been confined to English-language texts. Meanwhile, authorship attribution has traditionally relied on a diverse array of stylometric features, even as the rise of pre-trained large language models enables new contextual-embedding approaches. Combining these diverse approaches through fusion promises enhanced performance, yet it has not been applied to integrate stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems within the likelihood ratio paradigm. This study is the first to apply likelihood ratio-based forensic text comparison to Japanese digital texts, using ~1,000-character excerpts from blogs, to 1) evaluate system performance and likelihood ratio magnitudes and 2) assess the impact of fusing stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems. The results demonstrate that the fused system maintains excellent calibration while 1) increasing consistent-with-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes; 2) decreasing contrary-to-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes and 3) improving overall discriminability. The best-performing fusion achieved a log-likelihood-ratio cost of 0.32484, illustrating both the feasibility of likelihood ratio framework for Japanese and the benefits of fusion across heterogeneous systems.
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