arXiv:2606.14313stat.MLcs.LG2026-06中稿 · UAI 2026

建模时空动态的非局部耦合,实现不确定量化与稀疏观测下的精准预测。

Nonlocal Bayesian Modeling of Continuous Spatio-Temporal Dynamics

论文配图:Nonlocal Bayesian Modeling of Continuous Spatio-Temporal Dynamics
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用坐标基展开隐变量,通过可学习线性算子模拟长程空间耦合
  • 在不规则观测下预测准确率提升,不确定性校准度优于基线模型
  • 适合处理稀疏、非局部、连续时空数据,如气象或环境监测

现实世界的时空预测需应对不规则时间点、空间稀疏观测以及不确定性量化需求。该场景常伴随非局部相互作用(长程空间耦合)。连续空间-时间的非局部动力学自然导出无穷维积分微分方程(IDE),导致严谨贝叶斯推断不可行。本文提出非局部贝叶斯时空模型(NLBST),一种用于连续时空场的分层贝叶斯框架,可显式学习非局部耦合并保持可处理的推断能力。NLBST通过基于坐标的空间基展开表示潜在场,系数过程由连续时间微分方程建模,其可学习线性算子对应非局部IDE的伽辽金降维;神经微分方程残差捕捉额外非线性动态。线性高斯观测模型支持缺失与不规则观测下的卡尔曼式递推更新,空间基表示使未测量位置的归纳预测无需重新训练。全局参数通过变分推断学习,不确定性通过贝叶斯层次结构处理。在合成与真实数据集上的实验表明,该模型在强非局部和部分观测条件下均实现优异的预测性能与空间泛化能力,显著优于基线方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Real-world spatio-temporal forecasting must handle irregular time points, spatially sparse observations, and the need for uncertainty quantification. This setting is often further compounded by nonlocal interactions (long-range spatial coupling). Modeling continuous-space, continuous-time nonlocal dynamics naturally leads to infinite-dimensional integro-differential equations (IDEs), making principled Bayesian inference intractable. We propose the NonLocal Bayesian Spatio-Temporal model (NLBST), a hierarchical Bayesian framework for continuous spatio-temporal fields that learns explicit nonlocal coupling while retaining tractable inference. NLBST represents the latent field via a coordinate-based spatial basis expansion and models the coefficient process with a continuous-time ODE whose learnable linear operator corresponds to a Galerkin reduction of a nonlocal IDE; a Neural ODE residual captures additional nonlinear dynamics. A linear-Gaussian observation model enables Kalman-style sequential updates under missing and irregular observations, while the spatial basis representation enables inductive prediction at unmeasured locations without retraining. Global parameters are learned via variational inference, and uncertainty is handled through a Bayesian hierarchy. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate strong forecasting and spatial generalization with well-calibrated uncertainty, yielding substantial gains over baselines in strongly nonlocal and partially observed regimes.

时空建模贝叶斯方法非局部耦合不确定性量化

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