通过分析百万条地震后推文,识别出三种应对方式及其随时间变化的规律。
Coping in Crisis: Computational Modeling of Coping Styles in Digital Crisis Discourse During the 2023 Turkiye Earthquake
- 基于拉扎勒斯应对理论,用BERTurk模型多标签分类识别应对风格
- 问题应对在紧急期主导,情绪与意义构建随时间上升,愤怒强烈关联意义建构
- 结果可帮助救援组织动态调整响应策略,适合危机管理与社会计算研究者
本研究基于拉扎勒斯和福尔克曼(1984)的应对理论,利用超过一百万条土耳其语推文,分析2023年2月6日土耳其地震后数字话语中的应对风格。在选举前政治极化背景下,构建多标签BERTurk分类器,识别问题导向、情绪导向和意义建构三类应对方式,覆盖四个理论驱动的危机阶段。BERTurk模型宏观F1达0.693,显著优于零样本mDeBERTa基线(宏F1=0.324)。全量数据应用显示:问题应对在紧急期占主导并迅速下降,情绪应对上升并稳定,意义建构持续增长。愤怒与意义建构相关性最强(Spearman r=0.387),表明其更倾向引发归责而非实际行动。结果表明,应对理论可在真实数字危机数据中可靠操作化,有助于人道组织根据公众心理状态动态调整响应。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
How do people cope when disaster strikes and can we detect it at scale, in real time, from what they write? This study addresses that question using over one million Turkish-language tweets posted in the aftermath of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkiye, which unfolded in a deeply polarized political context just months before a national election. Drawing on Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) coping theory, we develop a multi-label BERTurk classifier to detect three coping styles (problem-focused, emotion-focused, and meaning-making) across four theoretically motivated crisis phases. BERTurk achieves a macro F1 of 0.693, substantially outperforming a zero-shot mDeBERTa baseline (macro F1 = 0.324). Applied to the full corpus, the classifier reveals a clear temporal trajectory: problem-focused coping dominates the urgency phase and declines sharply, emotion-focused coping rises and stabilizes, and meaning-making increases monotonically. Anger correlates most strongly with meaning-making (Spearman r = 0.387), suggesting it functions as a mobilizing force toward blame attribution rather than practical action. These findings demonstrate that coping theory can be reliably operationalized in real-world digital crisis data and that doing so can help humanitarian organizations tailor their responses to where a population actually is.
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