推荐低碳云区训练,预测全球AI能耗,助力绿色AI发展
Green AI Carbon Optimizer: Carbon-Efficient Training Location Recommendation and Global AI Energy Demand Forecasting

- 基于电网碳强度、可再生能源比例和数据中心能效,综合评分选最优训练区域
- 同一任务下最佳区域比最差区域减排97.2%,仅靠可再生能源比例排序可能适得其反
- 用幂律模型预测2030年全球AI能耗,范围7~1436太瓦时,适合政策与架构设计者
AI训练与部署消耗大量电力,但碳排放未被充分纳入常规开发决策。本文提出Green AI Carbon Optimizer,包含两项核心贡献:(i) 针对训练负载的碳感知云区域推荐方法;(ii) 全球AI能源需求的幂律预测流程。在区域推荐中,融合100多个主要云服务商区域的电网碳强度、可再生能源占比及数据中心能效(PUE),构建统一评分模型。以8*A100、100小时为参考工作负载,各区域估算碳排放介于7.74kg至272.00kg CO2。选择最优区域而非最差区域,相较可实现97.2%的减排。消融实验表明,仅按可再生能源比例排序可能选出碳排放更高的区域。在预测方面,基于26个基准模型建立参数量与训练能耗间的幂律关系,结合模型增长、硬件效率、训练频率等假设,评估推理占比与生态扩展的敏感性。在不同情景下,2030年全球AI能源需求预计为7TWh至1,436TWh,凸显部署选择、模型扩展纪律与透明能效报告的重要性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
AI training and deployment consume substantial electricity, but carbon outcomes remain weakly integrated into routine model development decisions. This paper presents Green AI Carbon Optimizer with two primary contributions: (i) a carbon aware cloud region recommendation method for training workloads, and (ii) a power law forecasting pipeline for global AI energy demand. For location recommendation, we combine regional grid carbon intensity, renewable share, and data center Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) into a unified scoring model across 100+ regions from major cloud providers. For a reference workload (8*A100, 100h), estimated emissions in our sampled regions range from 7.74kg to 272.00kg CO2. Selecting the best region instead of the worst corresponds to a 97.2% reduction relative to the worst case. Ablation shows that ranking by renewable share alone can select regions with higher CO2 emissions than rankings that include grid carbon intensity. For forecasting, we fit a power law relation between parameter count and training energy using 26 anchor models. We combine this fit with scenario assumptions on model growth, hardware efficiency, and training frequency, and evaluate sensitivity to inference ratio and ecosystem scaling. Across scenarios, projected 2030 demand ranges from 7TWh to 1,436TWh under the stated assumptions, highlighting the importance of deployment choices, model scaling discipline, and transparent energy reporting.
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