用大模型修正冰川融冰预测误差,让模型懂物理、会推理。
Hybrid NARX-LLM for Greenland Iceberg Discharge: Prompt-Driven Residual Correction

- NARX+LLM混合框架,用大模型修正时间序列预测残差。
- 在格陵兰冰川崩解数据上,显著提升极端事件预测能力。
- 物理提示词让模型零样本理解气候机制,适合气候建模研究者。
格陵兰冰川崩解呈现复杂非线性动态且观测受限,传统预测模型面临挑战。本文提出混合NARX-LLM框架,结合非线性自回归外生输入模型(NARX)与大语言模型(LLM)进行残差修正。进一步提出物理感知提示(PIP)方法,将非结构化物理知识转化为结构化提示,实现零样本上下文推理。核心目标是探索该框架对冰川崩解建模的修正潜力,而非单纯追求精度。NARX捕捉内在时序依赖,而经PIP引导的LLM则编码冰川动力学与环境驱动因素,识别关键趋势以修正系统性误差。该融合使模型能推理未建模因素并生成可解释残差,提升整体预测性能。应用于格陵兰冰川崩解时间序列,有效应对因罕见变异和非平稳趋势导致的极端事件预测难题,此为传统方法常忽视的瓶颈。通过融合结构化时序建模与知识驱动的通用人工智能,该框架为数据稀缺的气候预测提供了可扩展、可解释的新路径。代码已公开。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Greenland iceberg discharge exhibits complex nonlinear dynamics with limited observability, challenging traditional predictive models. We present a Hybrid NARX-LLM framework that combines a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) and a large language model (LLM) for residual correction. We further propose a Physics-Informed Prompt (PIP) method that transforms unstructured physical knowledge into structured prompts for zero-shot in-context reasoning. The primary objective is to explore the corrective potential of this framework for modeling Greenland iceberg discharge, rather than merely optimizing predictive accuracy. The NARX component captures intrinsic temporal dependencies, while the LLM, guided by PIP, encodes glacier dynamics and environmental drivers and perceives key trend patterns to correct systematic prediction errors. This integration allows the model to reason about unmodeled factors and produce interpretable residuals, enhancing overall predictive accuracy. Applied to Greenland iceberg discharge time series, our approach addresses extreme events that are difficult to predict due to rare variations and nonstationary trends, a limitation often overlooked by traditional methods. By fusing structured time-series modeling with knowledge-driven foundation AI, the framework offers a scalable and interpretable pathway to bridge data-limited climate forecasting with physics-informed LLM reasoning. The code is available.
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