用混沌波干扰融合与跨城迁移,提升数据少城市的交通预测精度。
CIWI-CKT: Chaos-Informed Wave Interference Feature Fusion and Cross-City Knowledge Transfer for Traffic Flow Forecasting

- 基于混沌特性的波形生成与干扰建模,捕捉交通动态规律。
- 在四个真实数据集上显著优于现有方法,减少训练数据需求。
- 适合城市交通预测、少样本学习研究者使用。
跨城市、数据稀缺场景下的交通流预测仍具挑战,有限的历史数据制约模型泛化能力。交通动态的混沌特性、复杂的时空依赖关系及异构的城市网络结构,使跨城市少样本学习更加困难。现有深度学习方法或仅将交通视为纯确定性过程,或缺乏对跨区域交通动态中关键波状干扰模式的建模机制。为此,本文提出CIWI-CKT框架——一种混沌感知波干扰特征融合与跨城市知识迁移方法。其核心创新包括:混沌感知波生成,提取可度量的混沌不变量并建模为自适应波分量;元干扰处理,捕获支持集与查询集间的波交互并输出可预测性评分以估计置信度;混沌感知元学习,实现高效跨城市知识迁移同时保留混沌特性。我们建立了理论保障,包括混沌到波的稳定性、波引起的维数约减以及元学习泛化边界。在四个真实世界交通数据集上的大量实验表明,CIWI-CKT显著优于当前最先进的时空图学习、迁移学习、提示驱动和少样本方法,在提升预测精度的同时大幅降低所需训练数据量。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate traffic flow prediction remains challenging in cross-city, data-scarce scenarios where limited historical data hinders model generalisation. The chaotic nature of traffic dynamics, complex spatio-temporal dependencies, and heterogeneous urban networks complicate few-shot learning across cities. Existing deep learning approaches either treat traffic as purely deterministic or lack mechanisms to model wave-like interference patterns essential for cross-regime traffic dynamics. To address these limitations, this paper proposes CIWI-CKT, a novel Chaos-Informed Wave Interference Feature Fusion framework with Cross-City Knowledge Transfer. Our framework introduces three core innovations: chaos-informed wave generation that extracts measurable chaos invariants and models traffic as adaptive wave components; meta-interference processing that captures wave interactions between support and query regimes while producing a predictability score for confidence estimation; and chaos-aware meta-learning that enables efficient cross-city knowledge transfer while preserving chaotic characteristics. We establish theoretical guarantees including chaos-to-wave stability, wave-induced dimension reduction, and meta-learning generalisation bounds. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that CIWI-CKT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art spatio-temporal graph learning, transfer learning, prompt-based, and few-shot methods, improving prediction accuracy while substantially reducing required training data.
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