arXiv:2606.15665stat.MLcs.LG2026-06

发现二项逻辑混合模型中检测与标签恢复存在固有信息差距,提出新方法提升标签可恢复性。

Information Gap and Feasibility-Aware Inference in Binomial Logistic Mixtures

论文配图:Information Gap and Feasibility-Aware Inference in Binomial Logistic Mixtures
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 通过后验熵惩罚改进BIC,增强对标签可恢复性的感知。
  • 在样本量固定时,检测到两成分但标签仍无法恢复的区域被证实存在。
  • 适合关注模型可靠性与后验概率校准的研究者使用。

本文研究二项逻辑混合模型中混合结构检测与标签恢复之间的信息差距。标准似然准则(如BIC)可检测两个成分的存在,但无法保证标签可恢复。我们证明:在固定试验次数下,观测数据对混合结构的证据与单个观测对标签恢复的信息在组件分离时具有不同的局部阶数,且仅前者随样本量累积。因此存在可检测但不可恢复的区间——此时BIC选择双成分,但后验标签几乎无信息。为此,提出两种可行性感知推断方法:一种是加入后验熵惩罚的可恢复性感知BIC,另一种是通过熵正则化缓解最大似然估计过度分离成分和后验责任过集中问题。数值实验验证了该信息差距,并表明所提方法能避免误导性成分选择,改善后验标签概率的校准效果。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper studies the information gap between mixture detection and label recovery in binomial logistic mixtures. Standard likelihood-based criteria such as the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can detect the presence of two components, but this does not guarantee that the corresponding labels are recoverable. We show that this gap is intrinsic to binomial logistic mixtures with a fixed number of trials: observed-data evidence for mixture structure and per-observation information for label recovery have different local orders in the component separation, and only the former accumulates with the sample size. As a result, there exists a detectable-but-unrecoverable regime in which BIC selects two components while the posterior labels remain essentially uninformative. To address this issue, we propose two feasibility-aware inference procedures: a recoverability-aware BIC with a posterior-entropy penalty and an entropy-regularized estimator that mitigates the tendency of the maximum likelihood estimator to produce overly separated components and overly concentrated posterior responsibilities. Numerical experiments confirm the predicted gap and demonstrate that the proposed methods avoid misleading component selections and improve the calibration of posterior label probabilities.

混合模型信息差距后验校准可恢复性

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