arXiv:2606.16054cs.CYcs.AI2026-06

用委托理论框架量化AI对民主的威胁,识别治理失效点。

How to Detect and Measure the AI Dangers to Democracy

  • 将AI民主风险视为委托问题,分析责任断裂机制。
  • 提出可测量指标,评估三类场景下AI对民主的影响。
  • 强调评估标准需公开,警惕私企暗中掌控风险判断权。

过去十年间,人工智能与民主关系的研究迅速发展。学界普遍认为,AI并未创造新的民主问题,而是加剧了已有挑战,体现在信息生态、选举和公共行政等领域。然而,尽管证据日益增多,我们仍缺乏系统化的方法来优先排序风险、跨领域比较,并识别民主控制最易崩溃的环节。本文主张采用委托代理理论应对该问题:在民主系统的多个阶段,主体将关键职能委托给AI系统及其提供方,却难以监控其运作及输出。将AI视为委托问题有助于揭示问责空白与治理失败。更重要的是,这一视角可提供实证评估的度量标准。结合NIST AI风险管理框架的七项可信性特征,我们构建了一个分析框架,以制度可评估性为核心条件,确保民主对AI的控制力。但需指出,危害严重性与风险可接受程度属价值判断,现有方法既未承认也未实现其操作化,尤其当此类判断被悄然交由私营厂商时,问题尤为突出。这被视为未来研究的重要局限。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Research on artificial intelligence and democracy has grown quickly over the last decade. A shared conclusion in this literature is that AI does not create new democratic problems so much as it makes old ones worse. We now see this across information ecosystems, in elections, and in public administration. However, despite growing evidence, we lack a clear way to prioritize risks in this area, compare them across domains, and identify where democratic control is most likely to break down. So, our problem is: How can we systematize the problems that AI systems pose to democratic processes? This paper argues that principal agent theory may fit the task. In many phases of democratic systems, principals delegate key functions to AI systems and their providers without really being able to monitor how these systems operate or the outputs they produce. Treating AI as a delegation problem helps identify accountability gaps and other governance failures. Most importantly, as we shall illustrate, it provides metrics for empirical assessments of AI impact on democracy. As a second analytical element, we draw on the NIST AI Risk Management Framework and its seven characteristics of trustworthy AI, which supply substantive criteria for evaluating delegated tasks. Operationalized across the three domains through measurable indicators and domain specific trustworthiness criteria, we propose an analytical framework that centers on institutional assessability as the central condition for democratic control over AI. However, we stress that how severe a harm is, and how much risk is acceptable, are evaluative judgments that current methodologies neither acknowledge nor operationalize. This becomes acute when such evaluative judgments are (silently) delegated to private vendors. We identify this as a strong limitation left for future work.

AI治理民主风险委托代理可信性评估

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。