arXiv:2606.16138stat.MLcs.LG2026-06

提出新方法让无需模拟的隐变量随机微分方程更准确还原动态系统。

Closing the Approximation Gap in Simulation-free Latent SDEs

论文配图:Closing the Approximation Gap in Simulation-free Latent SDEs
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用瞬时边缘分布参数化后验,跳过数值模拟
  • 在高不确定性下恢复动力学更精准,性能接近模拟方法
  • 计算速度更快,适合实时或大规模数据场景

从噪声观测中恢复动力系统是神经科学与物理学等领域的常见挑战。隐变量随机微分方程(SDE)通过建模不可观测状态的演化并生成观测值来应对该问题。变分推断(VI)为拟合隐变量SDE提供了可计算的目标函数。传统VI算法依赖时间离散化的数值模拟评估目标,需在精度与计算成本间权衡。近期的无模拟VI方法通过参数化后验的瞬时边缘分布而非漂移项,规避了这一权衡。本文揭示:现有无模拟VI方法因参数化限制,将近似后验约束在模拟方法可覆盖的SDE子集内,导致后验推断与参数学习性能下降。我们提出Helmholtz-SDE,一种无模拟VI算法,通过优化与预设边缘分布兼容的路径分布来弥合该差距。Helmholtz-SDE在高后验不确定性下显著提升动力学恢复精度,且运行时间仅为模拟方法的几分之一,性能相当。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recovering dynamical systems from noisy observations is a recurring challenge across scientific domains, including neuroscience and physics. Latent stochastic differential equations (SDEs) address this by modeling the system as an unobserved state that evolves according to a learnable SDE and generates the observations. Variational inference (VI) provides a tractable objective for fitting latent SDEs. Traditional VI algorithms evaluate this objective by numerical simulation over a time discretization, trading fidelity for computational cost. A recent class of algorithms, simulation-free VI, sidesteps this tradeoff by parameterizing the posterior through its instantaneous marginals rather than its drift. In this work, we show that the efficiency of existing simulation-free VI algorithms comes at a price: their parameterizations restrict the approximate posterior to a subset of the SDEs available to simulation-based methods, degrading posterior inference and parameter learning. We propose Helmholtz-SDE, a simulation-free VI algorithm that closes this gap by optimizing over path laws compatible with a prescribed collection of marginals. Helmholtz-SDE recovers dynamics more faithfully than prior simulation-free methods, with the largest gains under high posterior uncertainty. It further matches the performance of simulation-based VI at a fraction of the runtime.

隐变量模型随机微分方程变分推断高效推断

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