AI比专家更会说服人,连顶尖辩手也输给了它。
AI systems out-persuade expert humans
- 用大规模实验证明AI在对话中比人类专家更具说服力。
- 即使专家有奖金激励和充分准备,仍被AI超越,尤其在信息量上占优。
- 适合关注AI对舆论、政治沟通影响的研究者与从业者。
许多社会决策通过说服力较量决定。对话式AI是这一领域的新参与者,但其能否超越技能高超且高度激励的人类尚不明确。本研究开展四项预注册实验(共18,978次对话,来自6,923名参与者),将AI系统与各类人类说服者对比,包括普通民众、线上辩论赛四轮冠军、专业选民动员员及世界辩论锦标赛选手。结果表明,即使专家自主选题、提前调研、进行数小时现场结构化训练,并获得1000英镑现金奖励,AI仍稳定胜出。后续研究显示,即便专家使用针对击败自己的AI进行训练的辅导工具,回顾表现并查看AI关键回应,其说服力仍不及AI。进一步发现,当限制AI回复速度与消息长度与人类一致时,专家可与之持平。最终研究显示,该优势延伸至真实行为:相较英国一家筹款公司的专业动员员,AI在为救助儿童会募捐时几乎提升3倍实际捐款金额。这些结果确立了前沿AI在对话中超越人类专家的地位,对政治传播具有深远影响。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Many societal decisions are settled by contests of persuasion. Conversational AI is a powerful new entrant in these contests, but whether it can out-persuade skilled and highly incentivized humans has remained unclear. Here, in a series of four preregistered experiments (n = 18,978 conversations from 6,923 people), we pitted AI systems against a range of human persuaders, including laypeople, winners of a separately preregistered four-round online persuasion tournament, professional canvassers, and world championship debaters. We found that AI systems were reliably more persuasive than expert humans, even when expert humans chose their issues, researched in advance, underwent hours of live, structured practice, and were incentivized with £1,000 cash bonuses. In a follow-up study, AI's advantage persisted after experts received a coaching tool that let them practice against the AI that beat them, review their performance history, and see what AI would have said at key moments. We found converging evidence that AI's advantage stemmed from rapidly deploying larger quantities of information: after coaching, expert humans could tie an AI constrained to respond at human speeds and with human-length messages. In a final study, we show that AI's advantage extends to consequential real-world behavior: AI was nearly 3x more effective than professional canvassers from a UK fundraising firm at raising real-money donations to Save the Children. Together, these results establish that frontier AI systems out-persuade expert humans in conversation, with significant implications for political communication.
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