arXiv:2606.16580cs.LGcs.CV2026-06

用多模态图神经网络提升土壤碳预测精度,兼顾空间不规则性与不确定性。

Multi-Modal Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network with Mixture of Experts for Soil Organic Carbon Prediction

论文配图:Multi-Modal Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network with Mixture of Experts for Soil Organic Carbon Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建异质图模型,融合空间、光谱与高程关系,学习多维特征
  • 在非洲数据集上达R²=0.762,RMSE=3.51±0.48 g/kg,优于传统方法
  • 首次集成基础模型、图注意力与分解不确定性量化,适合农业决策

表层土壤有机碳(SOC)预测对农业可持续性、土地利用政策和施肥规划至关重要。现有方法存在两大局限:使用手工特征搭配经典机器学习或单模态深度模型,忽略丰富的光谱与时间信息;网格化架构忽视田间测量的非规则空间结构。本文提出SpTGNN,一种多模态时空图神经网络,同时解决上述问题。将土壤测量表示为异质图中的节点,包含三种边类型(空间邻近、光谱相似、高程),通过关系图注意力分别学习各关系模式。使用微调的TerraMind编码器从哨兵-2、哨兵-1及数字高程模型信号中提取节点特征,结合每样本环境协变量及学习的位置与时间嵌入。通过稀疏Mixture-of-Experts模块以top-k路由融合四路特征。不确定性通过异方差回归(偶然不确定性)与深度集成(认知不确定性)联合建模,并引入Moran's I惩罚项正则化空间自相关性。在包含三个区域实例的全球SOC语料库上评估(全球约4.9万样本,非洲约2.6万,欧洲约1.4万)。五成员深度集成在非洲测试集上报告R²=0.762,RMSE=3.51±0.48 g/kg,MAPE=22.9%,优于表格型XGBoost基线;最佳单检查点验证R²达0.864。消融实验表明异质图、MoE融合与微调主干均显著贡献,集成置信度堆栈校准后ECE为0.031(混合)与0.026(β-NLL)。据我们所知,这是首个统一基础模型特征提取、异质图注意力与分解不确定性量化用于SOC估计的框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Top-soil organic carbon (SOC) prediction is fundamental to agricultural sustainability, land use policy and fertilization planning. Existing approaches face two limitations: they pair hand-crafted covariates with classical ML or single-modal deep models that miss rich spectral and temporal information, and grid-based architectures ignore the irregular spatial structure of field measurements. We introduce SpTGNN, a multi-modal spatio-temporal graph neural network addressing both. SpTGNN represents soil measurements as nodes in a heterogeneous graph with three edge types (spatial proximity, spectral similarity, elevation), and applies relational graph attention to learn separate patterns per relation. A fine-tuned TerraMind encoder extracts node features from Sentinel-2, Sentinel-1 and DEM signals, combined with per-sample environmental covariates and learned positional and temporal embeddings. A sparse Mixture-of-Experts module fuses the four streams via top-$k$ routing. Uncertainty is captured by pairing heteroscedastic regression (aleatoric) with deep ensembles (epistemic), and a Moran's $I$ penalty regularizes spatial autocorrelation. We evaluate on a global SOC corpus split into three regional instances ($\sim$49k samples globally, Africa $\sim$26k, Europe $\sim$14k). Our 5-member deep ensemble reports $R^2=0.762$, RMSE $=3.51\pm0.48$ g/kg and MAPE $=22.9\%$ on the Africa test split, improving over a tabular XGBoost baseline; the best single checkpoint reaches validation $R^2=0.864$. Ablations confirm the heterogeneous graph, MoE fusion and fine-tuned backbone each contribute substantively, and the ensemble UQ stack achieves post-calibration ECE of $0.031$ (hybrid) and $0.026$ ($β$-NLL). To our knowledge, this is the first framework to unify foundation-model feature extraction, heterogeneous graph attention and decomposed uncertainty quantification for SOC estimation.

土壤碳预测图神经网络多模态融合不确定性量化

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