arXiv:2606.18338cs.LGastro-ph.EP2026-06被引 1

构建首个外星气候模拟基准,助力寻找地外生命

ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets

论文配图:ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用5个气候模型生成1800组数据,映射8个行星参数到三维大气场
  • 提出三类递进挑战,验证模型在缺失数据下的泛化能力
  • 发现传统高斯过程优于深度学习,揭示低数据场景新规律

寻找地外生命依赖于探测潜在宜居系外行星大气中的微弱信号。解读这些信号需理解行星气候:同一分子可能代表生命或非生物化学过程。全球气候模型(GCM)提供此类理解,但单次运行耗时可达数百万核心小时,且需大量领域专家投入。机器学习代理模型可突破此瓶颈,但进展受限于缺乏经过筛选的多模型外星气候数据集。本文提出ThousandWorlds,一个面向外星气候模拟的机器学习友好型基准,适用于低数据、多模拟器、参数到场的回归任务。数据集包含约1800个模拟结果,来自5个GCM,将8个行星参数映射至温度、湿度、风速、云层和辐射等三维大气场。设计三个嵌套子集,逐步提升难度:单模拟器回归、多模拟器完整观测回归、多模拟器结构化缺失回归。提出两种评估协议:一种用于方法排序,另一种衡量性能相对于各GCM间自身差异的表现。评估了七种基线方法,涵盖简单模型、深度学习与高斯过程。结果显示,基于高斯过程的方法表现最佳,表明ThousandWorlds揭示了一个当前通用深度学习尚未成功的场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The search for life beyond Earth will depend on detecting faint signatures in the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets. Interpreting those signatures requires understanding the host planet's climate: the same molecule may signal life on one planet and abiotic chemistry on another. Global climate models (GCMs) provide this understanding, but individual runs can require up to millions of core-hours and substantial domain expert time. Machine-learning emulators could remove this bottleneck, but progress has been limited by the absence of a curated, multi-model exoclimate dataset. We introduce ThousandWorlds, an ML-ready benchmark for exoclimate emulation and for the broader regime of low-data, multi-simulator, parameter-to-field regression. The dataset contains approximately 1800 simulations from five GCMs, mapping eight planet parameters to 3D atmospheric fields including temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and radiation. Three nested subsets define progressively harder challenges: single-simulator regression, multi-simulator regression with complete observations, and multi-simulator regression with structured missingness. We propose two evaluation protocols: one for ranking methods, and one that measures performance relative to the disagreement between GCMs themselves. We evaluate seven baselines spanning simple methods, deep learning, and Gaussian processes. GP-based methods perform best, suggesting that ThousandWorlds exposes a regime where off-the-shelf deep learning does not yet succeed. Data: https://doi.org/10.57967/hf/8695. Code: https://github.com/edstevenson/ThousandWorlds.

外星气候机器学习气候建模基准测试

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