arXiv:2606.18567stat.MLcs.LG2026-06

用迁移学习填补结构脆弱性建模的数据缺口,提升低数据场景下的预测稳定性。

Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies

论文配图:Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 针对数据缺失与分布偏移,设计四类迁移学习策略应对挑战。
  • 在飓风与地震案例中,迁移后模型在小样本下准确率显著提升。
  • 适合灾害工程、韧性评估领域研究者参考方法与不确定性分析框架。

本文提出一种以方法为中心的迁移学习框架,用于应对领域偏移、类别不平衡和目标标签稀缺下的结构脆弱性模型适应问题,同时保持工程可解释性并支持不确定性下的决策。通过三个互补案例验证:(i) 基于实例的迁移学习(重要性加权),应用于卡特里娜飓风下的沿海桥梁脆弱性建模;(ii) 参数迁移与分层贝叶斯迁移学习结合,实现分层间部分池化与后验不确定性量化,应用于伊恩飓风下的住宅建筑脆弱性建模;(iii) 多源迁移学习融合多个解析脆弱性模型,通过学习源权重与正则化目标域适应,应用于2001年尼斯基奎利地震下的地震桥梁脆弱性建模。在这些案例中,直接使用源模型在领域偏移和严重类别不平衡下表现失败,而针对性适应显著提升了故障检测能力与预测稳定性。结果表明,在构建和适配脆弱性模型时,需系统性指导诊断、策略选择与不确定性报告。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper presents a methodology-centered transfer learning framework for fragility adaptation under domain shift, class imbalance, and scarce target labels while preserving engineering interpretability and supporting decision-making under uncertainty. Four transfer learning strategies (instance-based, parameter-based, hierarchical Bayesian, and multi-source) are demonstrated through three complementary case studies: (i) instance-based transfer learning via importance weighting, demonstrated on coastal bridge fragility using Hurricane Katrina observations; (ii) parameter-based transfer learning together with hierarchical Bayesian transfer learning, enabling partial pooling across strata and posterior uncertainty quantification, demonstrated on residential building fragility using Hurricane Ian observations; and (iii) multi-source transfer learning that fuses multiple analytical fragility models with learned source weights and regularized target-domain adaptation, demonstrated on seismic bridge fragility using observations from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake. Across these case studies, direct transfer of source models (i.e. using existing state-of-the-art models) fails under domain shift and severe class imbalance, while targeted adaptation substantially improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes. These findings highlight the need for systematic guidance on diagnostics, strategy selection, and uncertainty reporting when developing and adapting fragility models.

脆弱性建模迁移学习灾害工程不确定性量化

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。