用强化学习优化锂矿开采决策,兼顾地质、价格与需求不确定性。
Optimizing Lithium Production Decisions under Geological, Demand, and Pricing Uncertainties: A POMDP Framework for Multi-Objective Decision Making

- 将锂矿开采建模为部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程,动态管理不确定性。
- 在多种价格场景下,决策性能优于人工经验规则,提升需求满足率。
- 适合矿业投资、能源战略规划者,尤其关注长期可持续生产者。
锂矿生产决策面临地质、价格和需求三重不确定性,涉及矿场开建时机与提取技术选择(如直接提锂或硬岩采矿)。现有研究未充分考虑价格波动、需求变化及不同技术路径的影响。本文构建基于部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)的多目标决策框架,采用信念状态规划方法求解。实验表明,在静态、线性、指数及随机价格场景下,该框架通过动态适应价格变化,显著优于人类启发式策略,实现更优的需求满足率,并在全生命周期内达成更均衡的经济与环境效益。模型支持探索、生产与技术路线的最优时序安排。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Decision making in lithium production is challenging, whether from an investor's perspective or a strategic production standpoint. Determining which mines to open and when to open them involves not only geological and price uncertainties, but also complexities around the choice of extraction method, from direct lithium extraction to hard rock mining. Prior work explored models of this problem and different methods to optimize mining decisions; these models did not account for uncertainty in pricing, uncertainty in demand, or different mining technologies to extract lithium. Incorporating different pricing models and extraction technology into these models enables more robust strategies for determining not only when and where to open a mine, but also which method of production to pursue. We frame the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and solve using belief state planning methods to get optimal decision making. In our study, we show that POMDP solvers outperform human inspired heuristics by dynamically adapting to shifting lithium price regimes (static, linear, exponential, and stochastic) through belief state planning and explicit uncertainty management. By optimally sequencing exploration, production, and technology choice, the framework achieves higher demand fulfillment and more balanced economic environmental outcomes over the projects lifetime in all different pricing and deposit scenarios.
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