用机器学习动态调整糖尿病随访时间,降低医疗成本。
Context-Aware Optimization of Follow-Up Intervals for Type 2 Diabetes Care Using Markov Decision Processes

- 基于患者健康轨迹分群,构建上下文感知的决策模型。
- 高风险患者随访缩短至1个月,稳定患者可延至12个月。
- 相比固定随访,最高降本34.8%,适合慢性病管理研究者。
慢性病管理依赖定期医患互动以监测疾病进展。对于2型糖尿病(T2D),现有指南对所有患者采用固定随访间隔,忽视了临床轨迹与患者特征的异质性。本研究提出一种上下文马尔可夫决策过程(CMDP)模型,利用来自10个初级保健诊所的22,154名T2D患者的电子健康记录(EHR)数据,优化子人群特异性随访间隔决策。通过主成分分析降维并结合聚类,识别出两类患者群体:低风险与高风险。CMDP策略建议:(i)当前就诊未测实验室指标时,1个月内随访;(ii)实验室值升高或近期住院者,随访不超过3个月;(iii)血糖持续控制者,随访6至12个月,且高风险群体随访更短。最优策略在高共病情境下比美国糖尿病协会类固定间隔策略降低约34.8%的预期累积成本,在低共病情境下降低约6.4%。结果表明,上下文感知方法可有效支持自适应随访策略,推动初级保健中慢性病管理的智能化发展。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Chronic disease management relies on regular patient-provider interactions to follow-up on disease progression and control. For Type 2 Diabetes (T2D), current guidelines prescribe fixed time intervals between subsequent primary care visits for all patients, overlooking heterogeneity in clinical trajectories and patient characteristics. This study introduces a Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) model to optimize subpopulation-specific follow-up interval decisions using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data from 22,154 T2D patients across 10 primary care clinics. Contexts are identified by: i) dimensionality reduction of variables representing the individual health trajectories utilizing Principal Component Analysis, and ii) assigning patients to contexts via principal components and additional patient-level features using clustering. Two distinct contexts emerged, representing a lower- and a higher-risk subpopulation. CMDP-derived policies recommend: (i) follow-up within 1 month if lab value at current visit is unmeasured; (ii) up to 3 months for elevated lab values or recent hospitalizations; and (iii) 6 to 12 months for sustained glycemic control, with shorter follow-up intervals for patients in high-risk context. The optimal policies achieved lower expected cumulative cost than benchmarks (e.g., in the higher-comorbidity context, the CMDP policy reduced cost by about 34.8%, and in the lower-comorbidity context by about 6.4%, relative to an American Diabetes Association-like fixed interval follow-up policy. These findings demonstrate how context-aware approaches can inform adaptive follow-up strategies, and have the potential to advance chronic care management in primary care by synthesizing machine learning and probabilistic decision models.
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