arXiv:2606.19361cs.LGcs.AI2026-06

提出计算可识别性框架,解决小样本下因果效应的可估问题。

Computational Identifiability

论文配图:Computational Identifiability
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用有限计算搜索替代理论理想假设,定义可计算的识别标准。
  • 在小样本、混合数据等实际场景中成功验证因果效应可估性。
  • 适合关注真实数据中因果推断可行性的研究人员使用。

识别条件描述了目标查询或参数在可用信息类型和数量下的可计算性。在因果识别中,这些信息常以因果图形式表示,且仅对图中部分变量观测或收集数据。目标查询可能是单一效应或给定模型中一类效应。识别算法的推导定义了理论上如何唯一确定期望中的目标因果效应。传统‘理论可识别性’通常依赖渐近性质、无限数据等理想化假设。本文探讨了这种理想化识别与一种基于计算限制的新范式之间的根本区别。我们提出‘计算可识别性’框架:通过有限计算搜索过程来寻找经验估计器。若在指定误差容忍度内找到估计器,则认为可识别,前提为搜索假设(如参数先验分布)和搜索过程本身成立。通过多个实验,证明该框架能回答细粒度的实际识别问题,例如小样本识别、图形准则模糊、观测-干预数据混合,以及跨反事实数据与估计量的识别。代码见 https://github.com/lbynum/metadentify。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Identification conditions describe the computability of a target query or parameter of interest as a function of the type and amount of information available. In causal identification, this information is often expressed in the form of a causal graph, and data are observed or collected for some subset of variables in the graph. Target queries may be for a single effect alone or for a class of effects in a given model. The derivation of an identification algorithm then defines mathematically the process by which the desired causal effect(s) can be uniquely determined, theoretically, in expectation. Identifiability in expectation, or 'theoretical identifiability,' generally assumes asymptotic properties, infinite data, or other mathematically idealized conditions. In this paper, we explore a fundamental distinction between this theoretical, idealized notion of identifiability and a proposed alternative that is computation-bound. The framework we propose - 'computational identifiability' - is to instead define a finite computational search procedure for an empirical estimator. If this process finds an estimator empirically, within a desired error tolerance, then identifiability is satisfied, conditional on the specified assumptions of the search (i.e., a prior distribution over the parameters) and conditional on the search procedure itself. Through several experiments, we demonstrate how this framework allows us to answer fine-grained, practical identification questions, such as identification with small finite samples, with ambiguous graphical criteria, with mixed observational-interventional data, and across counterfactual data and estimands. Code is available at https://github.com/lbynum/metadentify.

因果推断可识别性小样本

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