用频域信息增强时间序列预测,提升复杂波动场景下的准确性
Spectral Retrieval-Augmented Time-Series Forecasting

- 将时序转为频域窗口表示,同时捕捉振幅与相位相似性
- 引入指数加权机制,突出近期数据权重,改善历史依赖问题
- 在多个非平稳数据集上超越传统方法,适合复杂波动预测
时间序列预测依赖历史模式预测未来值,但传统方法在处理复杂、非平稳模式时面临困难,因难以在训练中记忆这些模式。检索增强方法通过检索相似历史模式来提升预测效果,但现有方法存在两个根本缺陷:频域盲视(忽略关键频率特征,无法捕捉周期结构)和时间近期性(对所有历史数据同等对待,未强调近期更相关的模式)。本文提出SpecReTF,一种新检索方法:将时序转换为带窗的频域表示,采用结合振幅与相位信息的联合度量计算相似性;并引入指数移动平均加权方案,强化近期窗口的重要性。在基准数据集上的大量实验表明,SpecReTF优于时域检索方法,在多种非平稳时间序列上实现更高预测精度。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting leverages historical patterns to predict future values, but traditional methods face challenges when dealing with complex, non-stationary patterns that are difficult to memorize during training. Retrieval-augmented approaches have emerged as promising solutions by retrieving similar historical patterns to enhance predictions. However, existing retrieval methods suffer from two fundamental limitations: spectral blindness, which overlooks critical frequency-domain characteristics that capture underlying periodic structures, and temporal recency, which treats all historical data equally without emphasizing recent, more relevant patterns. In this paper, we propose SpecReTF, a novel retrieval method that addresses these issues by converting time series into windowed frequency representations, measuring similarity with a combined metric that captures both amplitude and phase information. To balance recency and historical context, we apply an exponential moving average weighting scheme that emphasizes recent windows. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that SpecReTF outperforms time-domain retrieval methods, achieving superior forecasting accuracy across diverse, non-stationary time series.
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