用多模态胎儿MRI预测早产孕周,为孕期管理提供关键参考。
Predicting gestational age at birth in the context of preterm birth from multi-modal fetal MRI

- 构建机器学习管道,融合形态与功能影像数据预测孕周。
- 预测误差2.74周,早产分类准确率77%,特异性达82%。
- 首次将早产预测视为回归任务,适合产科与医学影像研究者。
早产与高死亡率及终身健康风险相关,其复杂多因素病因阻碍了精准预测与优化干预。本研究基于333例正常妊娠与93例早产病例的多模态胎儿MRI数据,开发并评估了一套包含定制化数据填补、特征选择和回归模型的机器学习流程,用于预测分娩时的孕周(GA)。通过分层10折交叉验证,该方法在测试中获得R² = 0.13,平均绝对误差(MAE)为2.74周;早产分类的准确率为77%,敏感性为59%,特异性为82%。消融实验验证了流程设计的有效性。主导特征包括宫颈长度及胎盘T2*值统计量。结合快速、抗运动伪影的多模态胎儿MRI与机器学习,实现了分娩孕周的预测,对妊娠管理至关重要。据我们所知,这是首次将早产预测作为回归问题处理的工作,具有概念验证意义。未来工作将扩大样本量以实现早产亚组的精细分层。代码已开源:https://github.com/dfajardorojas/ml-for-preterm-birth-。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Preterm birth is associated with significant mortality and a risk for lifelong morbidity. The complex multifactorial aetiology hampers accurate prediction and thus optimal care. A pipeline consisting of bespoke machine learning methods for data imputation, feature selection, and regression models to predict gestational age (GA) at birth was developed and evaluated from comprehensive multi-modal morphological and functional fetal MRI data from 333 control cases and 93 preterm birth cases. The GA at birth predictions were classified into term and preterm categories and their accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were reported. An ablation study was performed to further validate the design of the pipeline. Performance was evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. The pipeline achieves an R2 score of 0.13 and a mean absolute error of 2.74 weeks. It also achieves a 0.77 accuracy, 0.59 sensitivity, and 0.82 specificity across folds. The predominant features selected by the pipeline include cervical length and statistics derived from placental T2* values. The confluence of fast, motion-robust and multi-modal fetal MRI techniques and machine learning prediction allowed the prediction of the gestation at birth. This information is essential for any pregnancy. To the best of our knowledge, preterm birth had only been addressed as a classification problem in the literature. Therefore, this work provides a proof of concept. Future work will increase the cohort size to allow for finer stratification within the preterm birth cohort. Our code is available at https://github.com/dfajardorojas/ml-for-preterm-birth-.
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